| | | ASML plunges as export restrictions appear to take hold
Oct. 15, 2024 3:25 PM ET
By: Brandon Evans, SA News Editor
 Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images
ASML Holding (NASDAQ: ASML) plunged following a lower-than-expected forecast for 2025 due in part to tighter export controls in the Netherlands.
ASML plummeted 17% by late afternoon trading on Tuesday following the release of its third quarter financial results and outlook.
"ASML reported a tighter outlook for eFY25 with a narrower revenue forecast and lower margins," said Seeking Alpha analyst Michael Del Monte. "This is likely the result of the Dutch government tightening export restrictions to China, shrinking ASML's market for EUV Lithography. The report guided a narrower revenue range, lowering it from €30-40B to €30-35B. The lower margins guided are likely the result of reduced economies of scale."
The Netherlands enacted stricter export controls for advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment on Sept. 7, 2024. Companies, such as ASML, which builds extreme ultraviolet lithography machines, must now apply for export authorization, which the government approves or denies on a case-by-case basis.
"I've made this decision for reasons of security," said Reinette Klever, the Netherlands Minister for Foreign Trade and Development. "We see that technological advances have given rise to increased security risks associated with the export of this specific manufacturing equipment, especially in the current geopolitical context."
ASML's Chief Financial Officer Roger Dassen said he expects sales to China to balance out in the quarters ahead.
"We do expect the China business and the percentage of the China business as part of our total business to show a more normalized percentage in our order book and also in our business," Dassen said.
"We do see China trending towards more historically normal percentages in our business," he added. "So we expect China to come in at around 20% of our total revenue for next year. Which would also be in line with its representation in our backlog."
This is a massive reduction as revenue from China accounted for 49% of ASML's revenue during the second quarter of 2024.
Third quarter total net sales were €7.5B with a gross margin of 50.8%. Quarterly net bookings in Q3 were €2.6B. The consensus estimate called for third quarter bookings of €5.39B.
ASML expects fourth-quarter net sales to be between €8.8B and €9.2B, with a midpoint of €9B slightly above the €8.95B estimate. ASML projects full-year 2024 net sales of €38B, which is also more than the estimate of €27.71B.
However, looking ahead to 2025, the full-year sales forecast looks to come in 15% to 20% below expectations.
For the year 2025, ASML lowered the net sales forecast of €30B to €35B (mid-point of €32.5B). Previously, the company expected about €30B to €40B, which roughly equates to $32.8B to $43.7B.
"This revised guidance for 2025 is coming somewhat earlier than we expected, but doesn't change our view that 2026-2027 remains challenging," said UBS analyst Nicolas Gaudois in a note. |
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