It all started in the chart patterns. The rest of it was just me trying to find what would trigger the dump in 2026.
Mid-term cycle lows are not such a profound thing. However, this one is setting up to be one of the bigger ones in some time.
It's interesting that the 1960's analog is still playing out. I was back and forth with those guys maybe 18-months ago about that when it was an early fit. It's looking far better these days.
Demographics and population growth drive so much of global GDP. Without population growth, GDP has a difficult time growing, relying mostly on productivity growth.
Probably 50% of the US GDP growth the past 2-years was due to greater immigration (population growth). When you stop immigration, the US population growth gets more European, which is basically stagnation.
Ask people in Japan how they've enjoyed the past 30-years. Ask South Koreans. They are living the demographic crunch we would face if our population stopped growing. China's got next, and it's not good.
These days, our young people like video games, Instagram, and Tic Toc just as much as their grandparents liked household formation. Add in the coming sex-robots, and what reason do people have to start a family at all in the future? There is lots of downside, but can we actually sell the upside enough to get this generation to buy into household formation? So far, I'm not seeing it. |
