IDTI - an IC Play on Growth Markets Message Board

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Technology Stocks : IDTI - an IC Play on Growth Markets

IDTI 48.99

0.0%

Mar 29 5:00 PM EST

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To: Rob S. who wrote (6913)	2/20/1998 2:35:00 PM
From: Steve Lewis	Read Replies (1) of 11555

<that the stock will reach 30 between now and the end of '99. Any thoughts?> 1) The view of IDTI over the 98/99 timeframe is a must because of the 4 year semi cycle. I am a relatively unsophisticated fundamental analyst for the semiconductor industry though I've noticed and and am expecting a continuation of a rough 4 year cycle. The last peak was 9/95. (most semi stocks rose during 1994 into 1995 with a pretty good jump up near cycle highs---there are of course exceptions) 2) IDTI went from 8-10 to 32 at it's high (after splits) in the semi cycle mentioned above. 3) It's quite possible that this semi boom/bust cycle ends early or late but many of the stocks are still 50-85% off of their highs. There are many other factors that would change a particular stock's performance going into a new round of products and market scenarios. 4) The most bullish thing for me are the Asian problems with the Koreans seemingly no longer able to finance long term, negative (money-losing) and uneconomic DRAM and SRAM production. (maybe overall demand may catch up and surpass supply, at least temporarily) 5) The most bullish thing for me regarding IDTI is the product diverification mainly into the x86 component market (80 Million parts/year!) as exemplified by the IDTI CEO's remark (reported by Lehman) that they are entering markets that are 3X and 15X the size of their previous ones. The high could go to 50-75 (100?) if they hit a home run and Intel doesn't kill/eliminate their business in this area. It will take some time and new foundry partners will be among the signs that the industry is starting to adopt the IDTI "architecture" approach. Short term @ 6 months--who knows? (IMO.... 30 high 11-low) Steve

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