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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ)
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To: RT who wrote (5562)2/20/1998 3:18:00 PM
From: Tunica Albuginea  Read Replies (2) of 23519
 
RT, refills are up 7.4% of new scrips,and refills are steady as expected. That's how you look at it.

Message 3470034

The question you ask yourself when you look at percentages, is percentage of what?
First we know that capacity is constrained and the co sells everything they can produce.
Next we see that NEW scrips are 10,324 up 7.4% from week to week. This is great when extrapolated over 1 year: demand for the drug is increasing. Then we see that refills are about STEADY, up 1.5% which is what I would expect. If the drug works in 50% of patients the refill rate should never very significantly over many years; the same number of patients ( ~ 50% let's say are responding now as before). i.e. the only variation is in the absolute number of scrips. In The beginning we had 50% refill of 100,000 scrips, now we have 50% refill of 500,000.I hope in three years we'll have a 50% refill rate on 10 mill patients world wide!!! That means that in percentages the refill hasn't increase but in absolute numbers it has increased tremendously!!! You got to be careful RT with percentages!! GG.
In fact the fact that refills are going slowly up( when in theory none was expected ) is actually good: it shows that as patients / doctors become more familiar, the drug is administered better and the success rate is increasing.Which is the perception of the Urologists I know.

TA

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