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Politics : The Trump Presidency
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pocotrader
To: bentway who wrote (308189)10/27/2024 10:23:27 AM
From: combjelly1 Recommendation   of 358473
 
What is interesting is that there is a gender gap, but overall it is similar to previous elections where women tend to use early voting than men. What is different this cycle is that Democrats also tend to use early voting and Republicans tend not to. Except for this election cycle where Republicans are using early voting more than usual. But the gender gap is similar. What that means is not clear. The Republican vote tends to be male dominated, so what Republican women voting early in disproportionate numbers means is not at all transparent. Since Roe got shot down in flames, the succeeding elections have had progressive causes outperforming polls. Lots of theories as to why, I think it has a lot to do with the pollsters have trouble figuring out who is actually going to vote and how. All polls get adjusted to reflect the proportions of the electorate the pollsters think will vote. That is why there are questions about your political affiliations and other demographical stuff. But their adjustments don't seem to be tracking the actual voting in those more recent elections. These problems aren't new, which is why the trend of polls is a lot more important than the absolute numbers. So a drift one direction or another means more than if someone is at 50.1 percent or is outside the margin of error. The polls for the presidential race have rarely been outside the margin of error. Even as the pool of indecideds dwindle, this hasn't really changed. So I have to wonder if the pollsters haven't just balanced their polls in ways that have obscured the reality.
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