| | | Kamala Harris Receives Multiple Polling Boosts in 24 Hours
3 November 2024
Newsweek
Kamala Harris has enjoyed several polling boosts in the last 24 hours, just a few days before the election on November 5.
The Democratic presidential candidate has come out on top in a British "mega poll" with a sample size of more than 31,000, a new Iowa poll and in several battleground states in the final New York Times/Sienna College poll.
London-based polling company Focaldata used a new model called "MRP" to question over 31,000 likely voters over the past few months and put Harris in the lead for Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Most leads were marginal, according to the results revealed through POLITICO, except in Michigan where 51 percent backed Harris, compared to 46.5 percent who backed Trump.
Meanwhile, a new poll by one of America's most trusted pollsters has Harris three points ahead of Republican presidential candidate Trump in deep-red Iowa.
Selzer & Co. for the Des Moines Register and Mediacom surveyed 808 likely Iowa voters between October 28 to 31 and had a 3.4-point margin of error. Of the respondents, 47 percent supported Vice President Harris and 44 percent supported former President Trump.
Polling analyst Nate Silver called the poll "shocking" and said it "took guts" to release it.
"[Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co.] has a long history of bucking the conventional wisdom and being right," Silver wrote, on his blog Silver Bulletin. "In a world where most pollsters have a lot of egg on their faces, she has near-oracular status."
The final Sienna College/New York Times poll was released on Sunday, showing Harris ahead in Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Georgia. The candidates were tied in Pennsylvania and Michigan, while Trump led in Arizona.
It surveyed 7,878 likely voters across the seven states between October 24 and November 2, with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 points within each state.
New York Times/Sienna College is one of America's most trusted pollsters. Aggregator FiveThirtyEight ranks it first on its list of 282 for its historical track record and transparency. Analyst Silver ranks it in the top two firms, giving it an A+ grade.
However, Silver has also warned that Trump is often underestimated in polls. "Trump supporters often have lower civic engagement and social trust, so they can be less inclined to complete a survey from a news organization," he wrote in an NYT column this week.
FiveThirtyEight's most recent aggregate for national polls has Harris with a razor-thin lead—47.9 percent over Trump's 46.9 percent.
Newsweek has contacted teams for Trump and Harris, via email outside of normal working hours, for comment. |
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