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Pastimes : All Things Weather and Mother Nature
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From: Don Green11/5/2024 9:59:16 AM
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U.S. faces extreme weather threats this week
By Andrew Freedman
Satellite view of Tropical Storm Rafael in the Caribbean Sea this morning. Image: NOAA

A somewhat rare November hurricane and a "high-end" wildfire risk event are two of the top extreme weather challenges forecasters are monitoring this week.

Threat level: Tropical Storm Rafael formed yesterday and is intensifying over unusually hot waters in the Caribbean. It will hit the Cayman Islands and Cuba tomorrow as a Category 1 or 2 storm before moving into the Gulf of Mexico.

  • The National Hurricane Center forecasts then-Hurricane Rafael will move into the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday, potentially bringing tropical storm conditions to parts of the Florida Keys.
  • The farther north it moves, the more likely it will run into hostile conditions in the atmosphere and weaken, and its ultimate path and intensity are uncertain.
  • Human-caused climate change made the unusually hot ocean temperatures in the Caribbean, where Rafael is intensifying, up to 800 times more likely compared to the preindustrial era.
Meanwhile... The National Weather Service has placed nearly 30 million people under red flag warnings for hazardous fire weather conditions in California, from the Bay Area to Los Angeles.

  • In Southern California, a strong Santa Ana wind event is forecast tomorrow and Thursday.
  • This will bring extremely dry, offshore winds of up to 100 mph, an ideal combination for fast-moving wildfires.
  • Climate change is a key factor leading to an increase in days with extreme fire weather conditions in the Southwest.
"Extreme fire behavior and rapid growth [is] likely with any fire starts," the NWS forecast office in Los Angeles warned today. "This is a dangerous fire weather event."

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