Tenchu's Thoughts - Whoops, Trump won in a landslide, not Harris
I made my now infamous call shortly after the debate between Trump and Harris:
Tenchu's Thoughts - Landslide
I also added some follow-up thoughts on why I stuck with my call even though the polls were trending toward Trump after the disastrous debate:
Message 34865473
Message 34875452
Time to look back and see where I went wrong.
- It seems the polls were actually biased against Trump. This seems to be a recurring pattern, first in 2016, then in 2020. (Note that 2022 doesn't count because Trump wasn't directly running then.)
- Unlike Hillary, I don't think Harris nor the media made the mistake of hubris. Instead, they may have played "too safe" while underestimating just how effectively Trump was able to exploit anger at the so-called "establishment."
- Once again, the huge advantage that the Democrats had in political donations didn't matter. Trump's schtick was cost-effective and hit the right notes. I never would have guessed given how every single one of his rallies looks like a slow motion train wreck, but it is what it is.
- I think, more than anything, people simply voted their wallet. Who gives a Brandon about character when eggs cost 50 cents more than they used to? Who cares about Trump's 34 felony convictions when gas costs too much or rent is too high? Who cares whether Trump has a "concept of a plan" or not when the incumbents don't, either?
- Even though the markets made new highs (before today, of course), and even though inflation finally came back under control, it may have been too late. I missed that. I thought that the voting public, like the markets, are forward-looking.
- Also, I think I underestimated much of the voting public's xenophobia. I was rightly pissed off about Trump's cAt-eAtInG hAiTiAnS lie, but I think I too easily dismissed the growing pains of local communities where migrants congregate. It might not be fair to blame federal immigration policy for local government failures, but many voters don't care about the distinction.
- Finally, I think I underestimated how pissed off the voting public is over "woke" liberalism. Although I saw signs that "woke" was already going broke without Trump's help, the anger lingered. Moreover, "woke" didn't completely go broke, as it still dominates public education, academia, parts of mainstream media, and entertainment.
In any case, this is a wake-up call to all of us who underestimated Trump and his unbreakable connection with the disenfranchised. I still believe that his authoritarian proclivities are real and represent an existential threat to our democratic republic, but most people don't give a Brandon about that stuff.
After all, everyone is lItErAlLy hItLeR, no?
Tenchusatsu |
