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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation
CRSP 61.64-3.7%9:30 AM EST

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To: JamesK who wrote (52125)11/10/2024 11:41:45 AM
From: Art Bechhoefer1 Recommendation

Recommended By
Lance Bredvold

   of 52153
 
If there is a pattern in what often becomes a major fall in market value of a stock, the causes of that pattern should be taken together, not singling out one or more.

For example, NTLA, which you mentioned, was also on my list of potentially what's hot and what's not. Long before announcing they were in phase 1 testing of an oral drug that would work like the injected drugs for reducing obesity, regulating diabetes II, and performing other "miracles" that could benefit the heart, kidneys, and liver as well, NTLA had begun clinical trials on CRISPR type gene editing in vivo, with the promise of being much less costly than the currently popular ex vivo methods. But NTLA, also like many other small development stage biotech stocks, had a cash flow problem. When cash burn is so high that the only way to fix it is to issue more shares, diluting potential earnings, that's when a previously overvalued stock drops like a ton of bricks.

That's what happened to NTLA, down drastically from earlier values. So an investor has to consider at least two factors: Does the company have something glamorous, like a cancer or obesity treatment? Does the company have enough money to bring its potential drug to market, at a cost running upwards from $500 million? If not, you know where it's most likely to head.

Art
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