| | | Extreme Temperature Diary- Tuesday November 12th, 2024/Main Topic: Wild Climate Changed Weather Pattern on Tap for U.S. Including Possible Hurricane Sara for Florida – Guy On Climate
Dear Diary. The latter part of November should prove to be wild for a good chunk of the United States. Most of the East will be plunged into the deep freeze while Florida could tangle with a major hurricane name Sara. Both phenomena will have climate change signatures.
Overall, in a week we will see one of the most extreme blocky pattern that I have ever witnessed for November:
 The cold trough developing and digging in the Plains will probably lift Sara out of the Carribean and move it northeast or eastward. There is still a chance that Sara could interact with the Yucatan Peninsula or Cuba enough to weaken as it moves eastward, which would be bad news for that island nation, but our best guidance moves Sara intact as a hurricane into southern Florida:
 The European model moves Sara into the Yucatan Peninsula, which would weaken the system considerably. The GFS has been outperforming the European model this hurricane season, though:
 Why am I so confident about this forecast more than a week out in time? Because the GFS has been consistent the last couple of days, and ensembles are screaming for the development of Sara as well:
If Sara remains intact as it moves into the southern Gulf, it could be the latest major hurricane so late in the season to move into the Gulf of Mexico. Rafael recently attained that status, but it thankfully dissipated before affecting any more land masses besides Cuba.
After Sara moves through Cuba and/or Florida it will move eastward into the Atlantic and weaken. Behind Sara a cold vortex will chill the southeastern U.S., which has had a very warm fall. Cold records are possible there during the last week of November.
 Again, this is the strangest looking November blocky 500 millibar pattern that I have witnessed during my forty years of being a meteorologist. Note extreme positive values over Canada, which are aiding to build the cold trough over the U S. While the U.S. sees some record chill, Canada will have record warmth. This Canadian warmth from 500 millibars to the surface will be a climate change signature.
I’ll have many updates on this developing weather situation as we move through the rest of November.
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