| | | As of yesterday, SAVA was #4 on shorting list.
Matt N posted a prognostication of various P3 outcomes... not sure what math he used, but an interesting read:
RETHINK phase 3 reads out by Cassava Sciences, $sava, around December 18th of 2024. We know the drug is safe, so it comes down to effectiveness that could be demonstrated in the RETHINK readout. Here are my price estimates depending on data: 1. RETHINK does not show stat sig improvement in mild or moderate - Price will likely goto $10 or lower and wait for REFOCUS, but not good and shorts win. 5% chance this happens 2. RETHINK shows stat sig for Mild and not for moderate and not for total. Lets say Mild slows decline by 30% or similar to $lly and $Biib MAB treatments. Stock will goto $50+ after readout then drift up toward a $10B market cap or $250. 5% chance this happens 3. RETHINK beats the MABS and slows mild patients cognition 50% better than placebo. Moderate not significant and total not significant. The stock should goto $80+ then drift to $350 because it will be a blockbuster. 5% chance this happens. 4. RETHINK reads out MILD as improvement in cognition, so a 100% or greater than placebo. Moderate not significant, but overall is significant. Stock should goto $200 instantly, then drift up to $500+. Proves that if you take simufilam early you will not get AD symptoms. 20% chance this happens 5. RESULT I EXPECT - RETHINK reads out as Mild improvement AND Moderate better than placebo. So Mild's improve over 100% to placebo and moderate improve 30-50% decline than placebo. Stock will instantly goto $300 plus and drift toward $2000. Mega blockbuster drug, but slower uptake. 35% chance this happens 6. RETHINK on average improves the entire treatment group cognition at 1 year, so improvement over placebo > 100%. Stock will instantly goto 500 and rise toward $3000+. Mega blockbuster drug that solves the AD crisis and world wide medical and government will get behind getting the drug out as fast as possible. 30% chance this happens. There are more scenarios based on the 2 different primary endpoints. It's hard not to seem crazy when you put out potential values 10-100x the current stock price. Look at the TAM in the image though... Also, Rick Barry just said on the conference call that the actual patient population is DOUBLE because he says that Primary Care Physicians only diagnose 50% of AD patients. They are doing commercialization planning right now. The TAM could be double this... There are so many variables at this point on pricing, diagnosis technology and etc. I think the treatment effects, ease of administration, and safety profile will quickly become known to ALL families affected by #Alzheimers around the world. The small molecule pill is EASY to scale. I think that the patient and trial site personal interviews are not ONE OFF, but PERVASIVE in the trial. This stock is a raging buy at $26. More background... read here: |
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