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Technology Stocks : Ciena (CIEN)

CIEN 243.66

+2.2%

Jan 15 4:00 PM EST

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To: Richard H. who wrote (1353)	2/20/1998 9:13:00 PM
From: gdichaz	Read Replies (1) of 12623

Have to smile re the Gilder picks you cite. I am a fan too. Your choices are fascinating. Just shows how selective data can be misleading. Gilder was saying the GE chips were going to be a major competitive problem for GA chips over time because GE getting competitive in functionality - and price a fraction of GA. In fact, ANAD and TNGT bombed. VTSS whose chips are used for different purposes has not - yet. Gilder is a trend spotter. He makes no attempt to time purchase or sale of individual companies but tries to see which are riding an up curve in technology. Thought GE was starting upcurve and GA faced more competition in future. Re Ciena and his removal of stock. Frankly puzzled. Try to follow LU and NT and IMO the Lucent "product" is in the lab - i.e. vaporware. Have seen nothing on Nortel "product". Yet Ciena has new product due next month and new products for short distances (for which there is no competition as far as I have been able to find out) early next year. Wonder if Gilder too distracted with finishing his book and let someone else do "homework" on Ciena for him. Seems unlikely but think that better to watch and wait and see what actual competition really is before getting too excited one way or other re technological competition. This said, deferral by WCOM is a blow - temporary like Korea - but real. So what to do, don't have a clue yet. Note: Suggest that idea of selling TLAB to buy CIEN bears some more thought. If wanted to buy CIEN don't see TLAB as a particularly good source of funds. But all this IMO. Flawed human. Disclaimers. Etc. etc. Luck to all. Chaz.

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