<< craig, that's a most interesting list from which I conclude that I should modify my don't swim in the pool with the sharks rule to: it's okay if the shark is IBM! >>
You have to understand that people make fun of companies like IBM and DEC now because their clocks are being cleaned by smaller and more savvy competitors like MSFT, and C$CO.
That's easy to say in hindsight but 10 or 15 years ago IBM used to be spoke of the in the same way that you hear MSFT, C$CO, LU, and INTC talked about today. People couldn't get enough IBM, it was the #1 computer company and the #1 networker. They didn't call it big blue for nothing. Now they have the same kind of nicknames for companies like MSFT. (Mister Softee) IBM was the most widely held tech stock and everyone owned it just like everyone owns MSFT, INTC C$CO, etc. today.
Same story for DEC. Only NOW, after they have stumbled do they look like they are big sloths with no innovation.
How do you know that CIEN isn't going to run circles around a LU and an NT the way C$CO or MSFT or CPQ ran circles around IBM?
If you go back through history you will find that every empire including the Roman, Aztecan, Mayan, British, Spanish, Chinese, etc. (I could go on) fell from grace at one time or another. This will happen to INTC, MSFT or C$CO or all three eventually. Of course you can't fathom that now because it looks like they are all powerful and dominant.
There is always a fresh crop of young companies that overcome the sheer size and strength of their competitors, defying the odds. A David vs. Goliath if you will.
CIEN may just be one of the Davids. Nothing is conclusive yet but they have done nothing to show me that they haven't executed properly. They have expanded their customer base from 2 to 6 and with their scaled down WDM products (for smaller bells) they should be able to expand their customer base to the double digits soon. This will smooth out their results. In the future you will see WDM in the LAN/MAN area and you will see optical routing and switching. CIEN is at the forefront of this technology. Sure LU has good technology too but don't you think IBM had a router back when Cisco took off? IBM was the #1 networker. They missed the boat, let's see if LU can stop CIEN. Didn't A$ND siphon off remote access business for years while C$CO was busy focusing on routers? Cisco's made a mistake not acquiring A$ND years ago if you ask me.
Bumpiness in telecom spending shouldn't be a surprise to anyone, doesn't anyone remember companies like CSCC? Did we all forget about ADCT just a week ago? Does anybody remember this post? This post is why I wasn't big on buying TLAB at 65. I thought TLAB might have some order lumpiness. It turned out to be CIEN. I like them both.
exchange2000.com
I don't know why people bid CIEN back up to 58 to begin with. It was just 48 a couple of weeks ago. If the excessively optinmistic bulls hadn't bid CIEN back up to 58 in the first place this order push-out news wouldn't have caused such a dramatic sell-off in the stock. |
