did anyone tell you that should Ukraine lose it shall be the fault of the Trump?
Bloomberg this day tells me that this shall be true
Re below photo of the Scranton munitions workshop, the place does not look busy, so either not-busy or stock-photo.
bloomberg.com
Ukrainian servicemen prepare a M777 howitzer to fire towards Russian positions at the frontline in Donetsk region.
Photographer: Evgeniy Maloletka/AP
A Trump-Sized Hole Is Looming in Ukraine’s Defenses Against Putin
The President-elect says he’ll end the war in Ukraine. Europe is confronting the reality it will have to step up if the US cuts back support for Kyiv — but that won’t be easy.
By Maxim Edwards, Jason Kao, Julia Janicki, and Alberto Nardelli
28 November 2024 at 06:00 GMT+8
Ukraine’s Security Service presented fragments on Monday of what it said was an experimental Russian missile launched at Dnipro. Much remains unclear about the weapon used on the central industrial city, but the attack was followed by a familiar plea from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy — for more air defense against Russia’s relentless bombardments.
These requests have until now mostly been aimed at the US. Increasingly, they may need to be directed at Europe.
Ukraine Is Heavily Dependent on US MissilesEach square represents an aid announcement from a certain region
Source: Janes
Note: Chart does not show two announcements for anti-ship missiles. Data as of Nov. 11.
With Donald Trump at the door of the White House, European governments are facing up to a worst-case scenario: That they may soon have not only to defend themselves, but to support Ukraine’s resistance against Russia without their American allies. Trump’s pick as his special envoy for Ukraine and Russia of Keith Kellogg, a retired general who’s advocated cutting off military aid to Kyiv if necessary to end the war, only heightens those concerns.
European countries are already ramping up production of ammunition and artillery — a key need of Ukraine’s, though not the only one — via companies like Rheinmetall AG of Germany and KNDS. The issue will be sustaining these supplies, according to European officials who asked not to be named discussing strategic matters.
The President-elect has said he’ll end the war immediately on taking office in January, leading to speculation that the US might cut back on support for Kyiv to force a settlement. That’s precisely what Kellogg has previously suggested.
Without US weaponry, “Kyiv will be left at Russia’s mercy,” Marek Prawda, deputy Polish foreign minister, said in an interview. True, “there are also some contradictory statements from Trump on the future of Ukraine,” but that doesn’t change the fact “we are entering a more transactional world and we need to mobilize ourselves to fit into that logic,” he said.
US Supplies Over Half of Publicly Announced Missile DeliveriesNumber of disclosed missiles and rockets, by region and type
Source: Janes
Note: Chart does not include one US anti-ship announcement with two items. The amount above represents 30% of missile and rocket military aid announcements that includes disclosed amounts. Data as of Nov. 11.
European governments have supplied most financial assistance to Kyiv, yet the US remains by far its largest military donor. One particular vulnerability is seen as US intelligence sharing that’s key to Ukraine’s targeting of Russian assets.
Broadly, there is an understanding across European capitals that next year will be crucial for Ukraine’s defense. The key open questions are how strong Ukraine’s position will be in any talks, and the specifics of Trump’s plans, the officials said.
It would still fall to European allies, who are already struggling to meet their own rearmament needs, to fill the gap caused by any winding down of Washington’s military aid. Whatever Europe does, the consensus is that it cannot supplant that US role any time soon.
US Military Aid to Ukraine Set to Fall Behind Europe's ContributionsBilateral military aid commitments to Ukraine as of Aug. 31, 2024
Source: Kiel Institute
Note: Allocations are defined as aid which has been delivered or specified for delivery. The US and EU have also agreed to contribute to G-7 loans of about $50 billion, not included above.
What’s more, while everyone in Europe knows what needs to be done, European Union governments are still haggling over how to fund defense increases. A recent Bloomberg Intelligence reportfound the 15 largest European NATO members might have to raise military investment by as much as $340 billion annually to meet the challenge — yet joint borrowing is still taboo for some EU members including Germany.
Ukraine is significantly ramping up its own domestic defense industry in what is seen as a key plank of the country’s future security needs, notably producing its own drones. European arms manufacturers have also contributed, with Rheinmetall opening a plant in Ukraine in October.
Still, as Kyiv has swapped its Soviet-era kit for more modern, western-built systems, it has become particularly dependent on the US for both small arms ammunition and artillery. The Defense Ministry in Kyiv said this week that a problem with widely used type of locally produced mortar shells meant its shipments to the armed forces had been halted, with imports expected to take their place.
A M142 HIMARS rocket launching in 2023.Photographer: Serhii Mykhalchuk/Global Images Ukraine/Getty Images
Russia can fire a ratio of two artillery shells to every one by Ukraine, according to local Ukrainian reports, leading Kyiv’s allies to try to maintain the flow of supplies by scouring for shells around the world. Earlier this year, the ratio was seven-to-one. Europe pledgedto give Ukraine a million rounds of artillery ammunition, though met that goal only recently, eight months behind schedule. Although Russian production exceeds the combined output of Europe, it has had to resort to North Korean stocks to keep up the pace of fire.
Artillery is crucial in allowing Ukrainian forces to hold as well as retake territory. Here, the US makes up only a quarter of deliveries of single-launch artillery such as howitzers and mortars, while the US, Germany and the UK provide the bulk of multiple-launch systems, including HIMARS with a range of up to 300 kilometers (186 miles).
US HIMARS and M777s Are Key Ingredients in Ukraine’s Artillery
Number of disclosed artillery deliveries, by region and type
Source: Janes
Note: The amount above represents 88% of artillery military aid announcements that includes disclosed amounts. Data as of Nov. 11.
After defending against President Vladimir Putin’s invasion for more than 1,000 days, the precariousness of Ukraine’s fightback is becoming more evident.
While claiming he’d end the war, Trump has yet to explain how he’ll bring about peace. Outgoing President Joe Biden is using the remaining time to send in antipersonnel mines and allowing Ukraine to strike inside Russia with long-range missiles in response to North Korean troops deploying on Moscow’s side, but it may not be enough to outweigh the Kremlin’s massive manpower advantage.
Signs of escalation as each side seeks to maximize its position on the battlefield rattled markets more broadly last week, as Ukraine hit Russia with western-made missiles and Moscow responded with what Kyiv said was an intercontinental ballistic missile, although western allies denied it was an ICBM.
Both Russia and Ukraine Are Escalating With Bigger Weapons
Notable attacks since Nov. 19
Source: Bloomberg reporting
Even so, sovereign bonds issued by the government in Kyiv rallied recently on investor bets that Trump’s return will bring steps toward a truce with Russia.
Perhaps the only certain factor is Putin’s commitment to his war, even at horrendous human cost, not just to Ukraine but also in terms of Russian losses. This year to date, Russian net territorial gains in the war, including territory lost to a Ukrainian incursion in Kursk this summer, amount to 2,207 square kilometers (852 square miles), according to Alex Kokcharov of Bloomberg Economics. Using Ukrainian estimates of Russian casualties that could not be independently verified — 372,340 dead, wounded, missing and taken prisoner — that means 169 soldiers were lost to the fighting per square km of territory gained.
As the conflict drags on, Russia is poised to spend a record of around 40% of its 2025 budget on defense and security, putting the country’s economy even more on a war footing. That equates to some 6.2% of gross domestic product. Germany, as NATO’s second-biggest spender in dollar terms after the US, will lay out about 2.1% of GDP on defense this year. Even given the relative size of their economies, that still means total Russian defense spending is 50% as big again as that of Germany.
Despite spiraling inflation and the impact of unprecedented sanctions, Russia can weather the economic pressures of such expenditure for at least three to five years, a recent report by prominent dissident Russian economists concluded. According to some western estimates, Russia’s economy will start struggling toward the end of 2025.
Russia may face equipment shortages sooner, though. It’s having to cover some of its weapons requirements, including for armored vehicles, by retooling reserve Soviet-era stocks, and may burn through this source of armaments in 2026, according to Dara Massicot, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
The Scranton Army Ammunition Plant in Pennsylvania.Photographer: Rachel Wisniewski/Bloomberg
In recent months, Zelenskiy has flagged that he is not opposed to negotiations but wishes to hold them from a position of strength. The question now is how long he can hold out, and whether Trump could make good on his promises not only to reach a deal over Ukraine’s head but those of his European allies. While the mood in Kyiv was somber following Trump’s re-election, some in the Ukrainian capital say that Trump’s erratic record means there’s room for positive surprises and that they hope he can be convinced the country’s defense is a cause worth supporting.
The flow of weapons and ammunition to Ukraine will still be key.
It may take time for Europe to increase production, but it already makes its own weapons with advanced capabilities, such as the German Taurus cruise missile or Anglo-French Storm Shadow. The question is whether they can unite their defense capabilities and produce at scale, said Ben Hodges, a retired US army general and former commander of American forces in Europe.
Even without the US, “the combined economies of the west dwarf Russia,” he said. “This is about political will.”
— With assistance from Natalia Ojewska, Henry Meyer, and Rachel Lavin |
