Roger's 1998 Short Picks Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks

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To: Eric Klein who wrote (3379)	2/21/1998 9:18:00 AM
From: craig crawford	Read Replies (1) of 18691

<< 1. CIEN was selling for 15 times sales >> Good point. It's not selling for 15 times sales anymore so I like it. (It's trading at about 9 1/2 times sales now) << 2. Competition had just been announced from Lucent >> Doesn't every industry have competition? Show me an industry without competition and I will show you an industry that is probably not very profitable. << 3. Every stock market transaction is a gamble. >> True, and CIEN was much more of a gamble at 63 than it is at 42. At 42 it is reasonably priced. << I think WCOM is delaying because they are unsure of the future. IMO many companies will be pushing out purchases of infrastructure build outs and in other ways becoming more conservative in their expansion plans. >> IXC's/CLEC's cannot afford to sit back and let traffic jam up on their network. They will be forced to upgrade or they will lose their competitive edge and die. Just wait until xDSL and cable modems start being deployed in a big way. The strain on the networks will be so large that WCOM and other carriers will be begging CIEN for more WDM products.

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