Black Friday winners & losers: Sell side weighs in on Black Friday sales results
Dec. 02, 2024 3:17 PM ET
By: Amy Thielen, SA News Editor
 muratkoc/E+ via Getty Images
The results are in, and retailers can breathe a sigh of relief as Black Friday tallies point to strong start to the official holiday spending season.
Wall Street analysts weigh in on the significance of data compiled by Adobe Analytics, Mastercard (NYSE: MA) and Salesforce (NYSE: CRM), and what trends will translate into opportunities for investors.
Brick and mortar vs online: After a spike in online shopping during the pandemic, consumers continue to prefer this channel for its convenience and ease of price comparisons. Adobe Analytics showed a 10% increase in on-line shopping on Black Friday reaching a record high of $10.8B. There is also stronger demand by younger consumers with purchases made from smartphones outpacing computer sales.
Beauty: Data compiled by Canaccord Genuity showed that retailers don’t have to “irrationally promote” within the category to attract young shoppers. Ulta (NASDAQ: ULTA) got an early jump on holiday spending with promotions that kicked off back in late-October. Deals spanned across all categories but seemed heaviest in skin care and makeup. Piper Sandler’s Korinne Wolfmeyer is more cautious on Ulta ( ULTA), however, and sees a “still challenged retailer” with margin pressure likely in the near/intermediate term “given what we’re seeing this holiday season so far." Wolfmeyer favors e.l.f. Beauty (NYSE: ELF) and Interparfums (NASDAQ: IPAR) instead.
Footwear and Apparel: Hoka (NYSE: DECK) and On (NYSE: ONON) were top sellers in the footwear category this Black Friday given the high level of digital engagement, Needham’s Tom Nikic said, noting the improved promotional activity at Foot Locker (NYSE: FL), UGG ( DECK), and Under Armour (UA, UAA) as well as Hoka ( DECK). In contrast, Nikic saw lackluster promotional activity for Crocs’ Hey Dude (NASDAQ: CROX), Lululemon (NASDAQ: LULU), Nike (NYSE: NKE), Skechers (NYSE: SKX), and Steve Madden (NASDAQ: SHOO).
Toys and Leisure: As the reigning number one item for another year, BofA Securities calls out Hot Wheels (NASDAQ: MAT) and Barbie ( MAT), Play Doh (NASDAQ: HAS), Transformers ( HAS), and Monopoly ( HAS) as this season’s top selling toys. Alternatively, the packaging snafu for Wicked dolls ( MAT) kept merchandise off the shelves for the busiest shopping day of the year.
Outside of toys, Yeti (NYSE: YETI), once a popular gift item in years past, is beginning to lose traction to Stanley drinkwear, sold at competitive prices to Yeti ( YETI).
“We believe Stanley had the largest shelf space allocated in drinkware at both [DICK’s Sporting Goods and Academy Sports & Outdoors] and was featured in the front of store/power aisle at both retailers. |
