Climbing a Wall of Worry?
That old phrase defines how stocks often act. But, now we have a few sectors with the bejesus scared out of them by bill gates.
Remember that softie is a great company but they cannot be everywhere all the time. They have some good dbase prodcuts, but ibm, ifmx, sybs, and orcl are beating the pants of them in this area.--not to mention AOL, INTU, XCIT, CKFR, YHOO etc. as companies who all people thought would roll over and die.
There is no question that msft will be dominant on the desk top and they will be huge in internet content. With their investments in TV/PC , msnbc, msnetwork, and of course windows, they will be a dominant player for years to come.
Bur, some areas are logically tough for them to enter--the back end processing of checks and financial information, imho is one of those areas. Remember, when companies become too diverse, they lose focus and economy of scale. Add this to the fact that most bankers (and people in general) do not like gates, the savvy of ckfr/intu and the justice probes (who wants to bank with a criminal) will imho make even more banks embrace ckfr.
I am holding and, as others have said, will exit only when the graffiti is clearly written on the wall.
The problem with playing the timing game is that this stock when it rockets, could gain 25-50% in a matter of weeks--hard to jump on board a fast moving train. I remember when it jumped from 17 to 25 in the blink of an eye. That is what i predict will happen over the next year as msft fades into the distant #2 spot in this arena. |
