Tenchu's Thoughts - Trump's Concept of a Plan When It Comes To Ukraine, Part 1.5
Nothing much has changed since the last time I wrote about this:
Tenchu's Thoughts: Trump's Concept of a Plan When It Comes to Ukraine
Except the following:
Trump's plan for Ukraine comes into focus: NATO off the table and concessions on territory (Reuters)
Trump would supply more U.S. weapons to Kyiv only if it agreed to peace talks. At the same time, he would warn Moscow that he would increase U.S. aid to Ukraine if Russia rejected negotiations. NATO membership for Ukraine would be put on hold. IF the report is accurate, then this is actually good news from my perspective.
It means that Trump isn't completely wedded to the idea that we are supposedly waging a war of aggression against RuZZia. (Otherwise the logical choice would be to unilaterally cut off all aid to Ukraine, just like some of the PooTin cucks are hoping for.)
Everyone is losing, no one is winning
It also means that, to Trump, the enemy is the status quo, and that he is willing to pull ALL levers to break things up. This also makes sense, since right now both Ukraine and RuZZia are losing big time.
(Sorry PooTin cucks, but RuZZia isn't "winning" at all. Taking a few hundred square kilometers of territory per month at a burn rate of 45K soldiers is just plain stupid. Ukraine's strategy of slowly giving up territory in exchange for thousands of RuZZian deaths is a sound one.)
That's the problem with wars of attrition. By the time one side cries uncle, both sides will be utterly devastated.
That's probably what Trump is thinking right now. ANYTHING is better for both sides than the status quo.
Will PooTin Go Along?
Zelensky has already expressed a willingness to cede territory and negotiate, but will PooTin?
That's where Trump's supposed "charm" will come into play.
Supposedly by sucking PooTin's little ICBM, Trump can convince him to do the unthinkable, which is to come to the negotiation table.
But from PooTin's point of view, why should he listen to Trump?
Why should PooTin fear Trump's threat of ramping up military aid to Ukraine? We already know the MAGA party is pro-RuZZia and full of PooTin cucks. Even they would have little patience for Trump supposedly becoming an even bigger "warmonger" than Brandon could ever be.
PooTin knows this too, especially given how easy it is for him to control MAGA opinion through his network of Z-trolls.
Carrots and Sticks
So now we know what the stick is to get PooTin to negotiate, even if we don't know whether that stick turns out to be a limp noodle.
But what about the carrot? What can convince PooTin that freezing the conflict along the current lines is worth it for him?
Will it involve the partial lifting of sanctions?
What about the lifting of the oil price cap?
And what about PooTin's demands to keep Ukraine demilitarized and de-nAzIfIeD? How will Trump respond to that?
RuZZia is Stuck
Remember, PooTin STILL wants all of Ukraine.
And RuZZia is currently in a "war economy" which will be extremely hard to transition out of.
Moreover, RuZZia is now in permanent pariah status with regard to its world standing. Nothing short of a complete "regime change" will affect that status.
Furthermore, RuZZia is stuck in a fantasy that it is "winning" the war, despite the economy breaking down right before our very eyes. Breaking that fantasy will cause withdrawal symptoms that the public may not accept.
Basically RuZZia is turning into the next North Korea.
All of the above is something Trump ought to consider as he tries coercing PooTin toward peace.
Tenchusatsu |
