You have often made very good points, one, in particular, I have never forgotten, "trade based on what you see, not on what you think it should be."
This is what I see. The people who are most in the know, the insiders are selling like mad, at the greatest levels ever. Those who know the least, retail speculators are buying the most and are all in. Valuations for large cap stocks and the S&P 500 are at record levels. There is civil unrest at home with Jihad Muslim terrorists chanting death to USA and President Elect who vows to deport all of them. Now I hate to project into the future, but I severely doubt these terrorists go away peacefully. And who knows what the domestic left will do. Maybe the terrorists have weapons stock piled away here and will use them. Of course, the USA will ultimately prevail, but a lot of chaos and some damage can be done domestically speaking. I don't think stocks would react well to civil war or war on home turf. There is also the potential for tariff wars, which can cause upheaval for stocks. Lots of things can go wrong and cause a big market downdraft when stocks are trading at record valuations. I am also seeing a number of bearish divergences on IWM concerning price/RSI/CCI/ Slow Stochastics/SCTR. RSI/CCI/Slow Stochastics/SCTR all hit lower lows while price moved to a higher high.
In short: there is the potential for a big downturn starting anytime in December/January.
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