Some of the "refills" may actually represent repeat customers. For instance, the patient may come back and need a new RX (perhaps to send to a mail-in pharmacy) or to change pharmacies. In addition, they may need a new prescription because their original prescription said "three refills." This replacement prescription, I assume, would be counted as a new prescription.
I believe also (based on no data or clinical experience) that men who have been impotent may not be having sex 6 times a month. They and their partners will probably have adapted to a less frequent schedule. Over time, this would probably increase, but one shouldn't expect that a woman who has become used to nice, uninterrupted sleep is likely to give that up easily. (The writer is not necessarily of this persuasion, but my male friends report this as not uncommon in their marriages.) Also, perhaps some of the men with more mild difficulties will discover that they don't need Muse any more. There may even be a rational scientific explanation(s) for this including: better blood supply due to local nitric OXIDE stimulation, hormonal stimulation with feedback that may improve responsiveness, improved responsiveness of the partner based on some positive sexual experiences (that would therefore be more arousing to the patient with ED), as well as psychological reasons in the male patient himself. And some people will just decide that it's not worth it for them to deal with. So I wouldn't expect 50% of the patients to become long term users. These are all reasonable clinical impressions but there isn't any significant data to back up most of these assertions so no one should take anything in this paragraph as a known medical fact.
As long as both the new prescriptions and the refills are increasing, I am not concerned about the relative new vs. refill rate because there are too many unknowns about the data, as discussed above. So all of this looks positive.
Once again, I think that this Spring will be very questionable for Vivus. Unless one is trading the stock, it's interesting what moves are going on, but otherwise, probably not significant. I have never succeeded in market timing so I don't even try but think in one year this stock will be worth a lot more than it is now. Until the stock starts going up though, it's likely to stay put. This may seem to be a truism and it is. Nothing is going to make this stock go up until it starts to go up and everyone starts to get on the bandwagon. When will that be? After the MCA approval? Maybe, but I doubt it although there may be some upward movement. For whatever reason, Wall Street "wisdom" presently has this stock listed as risky and WS has a crowd mentality. The fact that this crowd mentality is based on no evidence, or the wrong evidence doesn't make it any less real to people who believe it. This is difficult for MDs to understand but important for those of us who are technically or scientifically oriented. How good the drug is is just not going to affect the stock price until the numbers come in.
Maybe a reasonable strategy would be to put one's money elsewhere to try to get some return in the next few months, then start buying the stock if it gets to 15.5 or so (but not like the recent episode at 15 where someone was accumulating and seemed to be willing to buy all available shares at that price). Maybe a trader can address this issue. As I said, no success in this field, although I'm trying to learn. I think a price of $25 to $45 is entirely reasonable for this stock. Its present levels are stupid, but what's new for Wall Street? I don't believe in the efficient market theory, I believe in the psycho theory, which most clearly explains recent Vivus moves. IMHO
Remember, money isn't everything. Put some money in this stock, forget it for two years, and you'll probably do ok. |
