| | | Just because I have all day with nothing better to do I piddled with this wave and cycle analogue. It demonstrates several possible points.
- When the euphoria stage hits the standard TA tools do not work so well. The corrections become dimples and almost uphill. It gets down right crazy.
- Euphoria started here about '99, and from that point the Ndx more than doubled. I think we're in the same area now. Getting close in any event.
- The back drop up to the 2000 top was with a rising dollar as well as TNX, at market top the TNX hit about 7 %.
- Post the 2000 top, the dollar took another two years to top out. I am a dollar bull, my current target date for the next big dollar top is 2030 plus, 2032 time frame to be exact, but for the last few years it likely will go nowhere. And a huge pm run started about end of 2000, prior to the dollar topping and tanking. It smelled it coming.
Afa cycles:
- The bottom to top was near an exact 9 yr cycle.
- W/r to the current market, the last big bottom to proposed top is in the 18 yr area, about double current market trend.
- So ... IF we are on an equivalent basis about where I think we are, we can speculate the time to the top from here will be around 3 years. I.e. we double it because the current cycle is twice now what it was going up to the 2000 top.
Just between the next two drive fib top I am looking at on the Ndx is about 26000. We C. But if a similar repeat occurs, as did in '99, the correction may be pretty mild. At this point we just do not know.
Goofy stuff eh? So far been working, I did this a long time ago.
But the market will do what it wants to do, never exactly a repeat. What a fun time to be alive.
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