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Strategies & Market Trends : A.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board

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To: Zen Dollar Round who wrote (18868)	12/14/2024 12:00:20 PM
From: OldAIMGuy	of 18927

Good morning ZDR, Re: Market Risk............... Market Risk Assessment....................................... Long term v-Wave remained the same, 18 month v-Wave came down a bit. LT v-Wave is still 34% suggested cash where the ST v-Wave came down to 46% cash suggested. The SignalPoint MRI rose this week as we see the indexes flattening out a bit. The MRI shows 38% cash suggested and a +6 MRI Oscillator indicating more steeply rising risk. Both the MRI and the v-Wave cash levels are for diversified portfolios and not individual company stocks. Single stock risk would argue for multiplying the MRI and V-Wave values by 1.5x to be on the safe side. Looking at these two indicators, it would appear the MRI has some shorter term aspects than the LT v-Wave, but not as short as the ST v-Wave. Studying the components of the MRI shows three of the four components rising in risk this week and one declining slightly. Three are currently in their own "Caution" ranges (a full standard deviation away from their medians) with one being neutral. As we view just how far away each market risk measure is from its own "Proactive" range, we see this isn't a time to be speculating on new, higher risk investments. Both are suggesting it's a great time to keep some powder dry while we await better times for new money investing and AIM cash reserves shifting to the invested side. This week's 13 Week Treasury Coupon rate is 4.408% yield, which is more than two times the Value Line Dividend rate. So, maybe Cash isn't such a bad place to vacation while we wait for better investment weather. I'm sorry I don't have anything more optimistic to report, but like on the old "Dragnet" TV show, I'm presenting "Just the Facts, Ma'am..." Best wishes, OAG Tom Buy from the Scared; Sell to the Greedy.....

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