re <<storm>> ... scroll to end of post and see the issues ... lots and lots of issues ... problematic to the point of best not tried, and should anyone try, in scale, depression and hyper-inflation, as ICBM dual is impractical when one side does not know which ICBM work as built 30+ years ago when the other side sports all new ICBMs
It is a good thing that Team China really only interested in maintaining growth by doing business
I am wondering what Team Russia is pitching to Team China by latest visit, for the read-out says bubcus
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quora.com
Will China finally collapse if the US put Iran-style sanctions on China? Namely, cut China out of SWIFT, severely punish any entity or country that does business with China, cut off all ties with China, basically kick China out of the global economy.
Why exactly are Russian Sanctions not working?
It's because Russia supplies Oil, Gas, Fertilizers, Food and Raw Materials to the Global Supply
These goods have a huge demand
So no matter what you do, people will find other ways to pay for these goods from Russia
So the Sanctions remain moot
And if Russia's Products are not part of the Global Supply, the Global Supply will shrink and the prices will surge through the roof
If Russian Supply is cut off, then even at 50% of the Demand of 2018, Oil Prices would rise to $ 139 a barrel
So obviously people, even Europeans will have to find a way to pay the Russians and ensure Russian Oil, Gas and other products keep flowing to the Global Supply Chain
Why would Sanctions not work on China?
Same reason
China may not produce Oil Or Gas but it produces 57% of the World's “Cheap Goods”
Chinese Goods imported into half the world, retail for a sum between 2.5–6 timestheir import value and this sum goes as Salaries, Development funds, expansion funds, investments etc
Around $ 100 Billion of Imports from China cause a value addition of :-
- $ 261 Billion in Germany
- $ 279 Billion in Russia
- $ 178 Billion in Japan
- $ 409 Billion in India
- $ 536 Billion in USA
So by cutting off $ 100 Billion of Imports from China to the US Economy, you are cutting off $ 436 Billion of Value Enhancement into the US Economy
After all when a Chinese made shoe imported for $ 47 sells for $ 139 retail, Walmart makes $ 40 in profit which is almost 91% of the import price of the show
This $ 436 Billion alone could cause additional inflation of 1.25% a year
Plus a huge supply shortage which could cause more inflation
Already Trump Tariffs are being easily by passed by near sourcing from Mexico
Soon there will be more Chinese goods coming in from Bolivia, Dominica or some South African Nation
Ultimately the only way to successfully sanction China is to find an alternate origin station of these goods
However for 100 Tons of Goods manufactured by China today :-
- India makes 8.5 Tons
- Vietnam makes 7.7 Tons
- Turkey makes 5.2 Tons
- Bangladesh makes 4.4 Tons
- Mexico (Non China) makes 3.1 Tons
Combined today, the other five nations make 29% of what China alone can make in a single year
There is a second reason:-
Reciprocity
China represents a Huge Market
In 2010, the Chinese Market had a Domestic Fulfilment (Demand fulfilled by Domestic Manufacturers) of 7.2%
In 2023, this number rose to 40.4%
This means 40% of Chinas Market is fully catered to by Domestic Manufacturing which means 60% of the Market STILL requires Foreign Products and Services
60% of the Market means close to $ 7 Trillion a year
If the West sanctions China, China could cut off the West and it's access to the $ 7 Trillion Market
Western Entitities could lose almost $ 4.5 Trillion from such a move
There is no alternate market today in Asia
For every $ 100 that a Chinese Consumer spends on foreign goods :-
- Indian Consumers spend $ 14.75
- Japanese Consumers spend $ 18.50
- South Korean Consumers spend $ 14.40
- ASEAN Consumers spend $ 20.42
Thus the biggest nations in Asia including all of ASEAN, economy wise collectively buy and spend only 68% of what China alone spends on foreign goods
So no way they can suddenly increase their spending by 140%
So right now Sanctions against China would be more catastrophic than Russia for the West
The cost of $ 1 Loss to China would mean between $ 5–6 for the West
China can somehow adjust with BRI nations and avoid a killer blow
Yet the West can't
It would accelerate their decline
So these Sanctions simply won't work beyond a few weeks or months at the most
Their time is over on this earth and their masters, the West are terrified of this |
