David,
I'm not a short term trader but since you said "anyone", I'll put in my two cents worth.
Two weeks ago I sold one of my 'vettes, last week I sold my boat. Why?
I needed the cash to buy more INTCW. Basically I'm investing 'til it hurts. A neighbor saw my boat going down the road and later asked "sell your boat?" "Yep" "Buying more Intel huh?" "You got it!" Now my family and friends think I'm insane. I own a truckload of just two stocks INTC, INTCW, and CSCO. So knowing that I may be slightly biased toward owning INTC long term, take the follow advice with a big grain of salt.
Military leaders use what is called the 80% solution. Since combat is a constantly changing, dynamic environment you will never have 100% of the info. required to make a tactical decision (until of course the conflict has ended, which is TOO LATE!). Nevertheless you MUST make a timely decision based on careful analysis of the available data. If you are lucky enough to have 80% of the pertinent data, this is more than enough to take action. Waiting beyond this point will not usually change the outcome of your decision, but failure to take timely action can cost lives.
Can the 80% solution be applied to the stock market? I've been giving it a try with some success so far. Regarding INTC I believe we have close to 80% of the pertinent facts effecting the long term outlook either stated or implied. Waiting for more info. will cost you $$$ if you're long on INTC. My interpretation of a few of the facts:
1. 5% projected revenue increase-- Intel's very conservative, it will be much higher.
2. Not lowering prices-- Intel's confident their market share will not suffer. That's why we call them a monopoly.
3. Booming PC demand from corporate upgrading and consumers projected to continue. How long? That's part of the 20% we don't know.
4. Merrill Lynch analyst upgrade to "strong buy" ahead of earnings-- this analyst is no fool, he's analyzed the recent price run up, he's seen the Salomon downgrade and considered their reasoning. He's also talked to the folks at Intel and must have come away thinking "my gosh these boys are "knocking the cover off the ball", my estimates are way too low!" My words not his.
Bottom line is if you're long and wanting to buy more, waiting for the earnings report will cost you $$$. If you're one of the 20M shorts somebody reported on this thread, all I can say is "toot, toot better clear the tracks before you get run over by the Intel express on Tues." Barring a market correction I think INTC continues up.
Now you can interpret my bullishness as a contrary indicator, as I often do with bearishness but ONLY with INTC and CSCO. You see in my feeble, biased, twisted mind good news is good, and bad news is absolutely OUTSTANDING! It scares those more prudent folks into selling me their shares cheap.
Lee |
