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Strategies & Market Trends : ajtj's Post-Lobotomy Market Charts and Thoughts

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ajtj99
To: ajtj99 who wrote (88793)12/18/2024 11:58:59 PM
From: Tweets Boar Hog1 Recommendation  Read Replies (2) of 97214
 
You are coming around aj.

Message 34944043

the next big dollar top is 2030 plus, 2032 time frame to be exact,

And late 2032.

I do not not have a fast target for the top. Mid tine of my fork is 140 plus, top tine at a double ATH. I do not know if that is mathematically possible these days, given the dollar basket.

The dollar basket is obsolete imo. Will probably at some point be redone.

I think probability pretty high my target date is close. 48 yrs from the 1985 top. 32 yrs from the 2001 top. 16 yrs from the 2017 top. The 8/16 yr cycle is pretty dominant. These cycle tops can hit with precision.

At some point we know that high LT interest rates will kill this bull market. In the early 80's I think I recall getting a 5 yr CD for about 9 %. Old timers were lapping them up. So when is enuff enuff? Ultimately an inflation tsunami awaits us. Probably in the first leg up. Long cycles so it is all just starting.

Back in the 80's the top was in, and LT rates were heading down. Now it is all reversed.

I tend to think it is possible that the Fed and DC crowd loves the stronger dollar. It is helping to mask inflation, reduce the relevance of Trump tariffs, and since we import so much, keep the price of imports down. Think like a criminal?

The Bond Vigilantes gave Powell the middle finger today imo.

Not a Yardini, wonder if anything exactly like what we are seeing has happened before.

Gold, silver, pm's and crypto look to be struggling. Hope so too. My ball game has been to go mostly with tech, thinking the pm's and crypto have a big bottom yet ahead. PM indices got hit pretty hard today as well..

As I recall in the 1929 run to the top pm's bottomed before the big top, then got hit pretty good at the top, then did really well. Charts a bit scarce.

Tweets
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