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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum

MU 248.54

+10.1%

3:59 PM EST

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To: DJBEINO who wrote (28742)	2/21/1998 4:47:00 PM
From: Richard Russell	Read Replies (2) of 53903

>>DJBEINO on Feb 21 1998 2:11PM EST "We're looking at a situation where Japanese and Koreans have stopped investing in DRAM capacity, and with Windows 98 coming out in the next six to eight months we're facing the potential situation of another shortage," Hutcheson said. He estimates that Korean chip makers will cut capital spending by 40 percent this year and Japanese companies by 20 percent.<< "But most analysts expect other suppliers to simply fill the void with more than enough DRAM capacity. In fact, some Japanese and South Korean producers probably will pump out more chips in the years ahead just from geometry shrinks. Every generation shrink can double the number of chips from a wafer. With little hope of DRAM pricing relief in sight, one wonders why the rumored departures aren't true. The party line now is that prices and profits will firm up late this year, with supply finally coming in line with demand by 1999. The Japanese and Koreans are even talking up possible shortages in some DRAM types, but we've seen similar self-serving warnings in the past." Great articles with divergent opinions as to the future. Its seems that its anybodys guess at this point. What do you think, DJ, LD, Jerry and all, these articles are telling us? Will the continued glut and price erosion be remedied by capacity cut backs leading to a shortage with big profits to chipmakers by next year? Or will supply and demand come into some kind of equilibrium with chipmakers profiting with thin margins with chipmakers cranking up capacity as needed in the midst of vicious competition? What does all this mean for mu? Is the "cycle psychology" fueled by thinking the more mu loses the closer to a bottom therefore time to buy? And even if we are approaching a cycle bottom does anyone think that there will be big profits at the next cycle top? Soros doesn't. RR

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