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Strategies & Market Trends : TRIPLE TRADES
OPEN 7.993+21.9%Nov 10 3:59 PM EST
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To: Bull RidaH who wrote (3937)12/19/2024 11:23:40 PM
From: Rarebird2 Recommendations

Recommended By
Bull RidaH
POKERSAM

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Hi. I cashed out completely 3 weeks ago. Since then I I have been in 6 month and one Year T-bills, SGOV, and Schwab Money market.

I think the Dow and IWM have topped. I need to see SPX to break decisively below $5800 to call a Top there.

The rest of this decade looks pretty bleak to me.

I am looking for the first leg down to lead to SPX $2900-$3600. I will be able to tighten the parameters once I see the structure of the decline take hold. I then see a countertrend rally back to SPX $4600-$4800 over a period of 2-3 years, which will get most complacent again. Then the bottom falls out again with a decline to $2300-$2400.

Short term, I am looking for the classic short set up where the market declines 10%-15%, maybe even closer to 20% and then a very spirited rally which fails to make a new high. It is at that point that I want to short the chit out of this market. It will be a wave 3 of A decline. Till then, I will have to suffer with one of my best years ever and a 4%+ yield.

This market has looked so extremely dangerous for the past two to three weeks. Valuations are stretched outrageously by just about any measure you look at while the technicals are rapidly deteriorating.

I pushed things by staying clown long as long as I could. But I see a very severe secular bear on the horizon. We got a warning shot yesterday.

All I know is that this is going to get real ugly.

PS I voted for Trump and a Republican President for the first time in my life in 2024. I also changed my Registration status to Independent. It was an easy decision since I don't support radical Muslim jihad terrorists and am not a Marxist.
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