AVXL:
I can either think of my AVXL position as a zero cost basis b/c I bought it with proceeds from loaning my SAVA shares, or I can think of my AVXL cost basis...er...what I paid for SAVA. Or what I paid for AVXL. I'm going with the first ;)
I can consider my AVXL buy a magnificent investment, considering my profit margin is infinite. OK, undefined. When you divide by zero your program generates an exception (former computer programmer here)....
Kidding aside, I'm not rushing out and buying any more AVXL. Drugs for AD are notoriously failure-prone in the real world, despite anecdotes. We've had an object lesson in that recently as I recall. I'll just sit back and watch AVXL.
As for the market in general being fragile... I haven't a clue where it'll go. And given my ability to time anything I'm not jumping in/out. I'll tell you all about my track record with IMMU options, but you have to buy me wine first 'cause it's easier to tell embarrassing stories when you're tipsy.
And here's my timeline for the IMMU buyout, when I was convinced that the market would tank due to Covid.
Fall '20 buyout. Dow around 27,000. Sit on the cash.
April '21 I was wrong so jump back in. Dow around 34,000
April '22, Dow around 33,000 (a bit higher for a while since April '21)
Late '23, finally back up to where I jumped in in April '21.
At no time since the buyout has the market been significantly lower than it was at the buyout. So much for my intuition. It sure was lower between the time I jumped back in on April '21 and late last year though.
Of course, it's been great since, but my point is my ability to time things is horrible, I've finally realized I'm not special, I'm one of the majority of people who lose money when they think they can time the market.
<rant>
OK, incoming rant because it's winter and I'm waiting for the snow to stop before going out and cleaning the solar panels, feel free to ignore ;)
The thing that soured me on timing and/or technical analysis (which, to me, is a form of market timing) was reading "Pring on Market Momentum" a looooong time ago. The examples used historical charts with different parameters. They didn't, for instance, compare all the common intervals and methods of reducing "false signals" for the same stock/market over the same period. There are enough variables that you can make any system fit at least some stock/market, then cherry-picking the ones that fit your model. And don't even get me started on the justification for using 28 day intervals that displays a complete lack of understanding of menstrual cycles <snark>.
Then I read (forgot the title), but it was about using options that outlined about a zillion strategies, the "reverse candle upside-down bear hedge" (OK, made that up). The point is lots of the strategy outlines began "If you think the market/stock is going to...". If I'm right about that, what do I need complicated option strategies for? Given that my purchases of calls performed so poorly, that may just be sour grapes ;)
The deceptive part to me is that most any timing strategy will work under the right market conditions, leading to a false conclusion that the strategy was responsible rather than the market just heading one direction or the other. During a bull market, most any strategy with rising markets built in will show profit. During a bear market the reverse. Either strategy fails miserably under the opposite market conditions. And, from what I've seen, none of them outperform the market.
I got lucky once, I'm not counting on doing so again. Hoping with a small part of my portfolio, but not taking anything near the risks I did with IMMU.
</rant> |
