What about these negative news about Cien and AT&T
from CBS MARKETWATCH
Meanwhile, the folks at Ciena say they can still meet analysts' 1998 revenue estimate of $600 million by getting more money from other accounts, including AT&T, which is currently testing Ciena's technology.
Gurinder Parhar, an analyst at Toronto-based Canaccord Capital, is doubtful. "I respect their assumptions, but I don't think they'll make it," said Parhar, who's reducing his 1998 revenue estimate by $30 million.
The main problem for Ciena, according to Parhar, is that rival Lucent already has locked up many of the limited number of WDM users. According to Kathy Szelag, director of optical networking for Lucent, the company has 20 customers, three of which will be publicly announced in mid-March.
AT&T is one of those customers, and Ma Bell has already committed to testing Lucent's next-generation WDM product, which will divide fiber strands into 80 channels. Lucent said last month that the product will be ready by the end of the year, and Szelag reaffirmed that schedule. "We don't expect to have it out by then, we will have it out," she said. "Our jobs are on the line and we have customer commitments."
Parhar said the Lucent announcement of the 80-channel product was a great strategic move likely to keep some service providers from "making immediate purchase decisions for WDM in order to evaluate the new offering."
In addition, Parhar said many service providers may find it easier shopping at Lucent, which offers a wide range of telecommunication equipment, than buying the limited products available at Ciena.
"Ciena has smart people, but they're still only about 900 people. Lucent has 24,000 people just in its R&D department," Parhar said. "(Ciena's) scrambling right now." <Picture: [CBS MarketWatch]>
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