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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor
GDXJ 115.10+1.1%Dec 30 4:00 PM EST
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To: Mark Bartlett who wrote (7774)2/21/1998 6:57:00 PM
From: paul ross  Read Replies (3) of 116836
 
CPI and M3 (US) figures:(per cent increase)

YEAR............CPI............M3
97...............2.3...........8.4
96...............2.9...........7.1
95...............2.8...........6.1
94...............2.6...........1.8
93...............2.9...........1.6
92...............3.0...........0.4
91...............4.2...........0.1
90...............5.4...........1.7
89...............4.8...........3.9
88...............4.1...........6.4
87...............3.6...........4.9
86...............1.9...........9.4
85...............3.6...........7.6
84...............4.3..........11.1
83...............3.2...........9.8
82...............9.9...........9.3
81..............10.4..........12.4

I put together these numbers from stats. in these two URL's (I'm responsible for all math. mistakes, though I did check thru)-

stats.bls.gov

stls.frb.org

There seems to be a delay factor in the effects of changes in the M3 vs CPI of between 2 to 3 years.Though we can not see the changes in M3 in the late 70's which brought about the 10% CPI increases in 80 and 81 (data didn't go back that far), the low CPI numbers from 93 to 97 seem to correlate with the pronounced decrease in M3 starting in 90 and running through 94. Though there in no way appears to be an exact correlation, it might be inferred that the higher M3 numbers beginning in 95 and running through the present time might bring higher CPI numbers in 98 and forward.

PR
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