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<<I am in MOGN because of Salagen.>>
Salagen has a great future with the new approval for Sjogren's. However, I don't think one should invest in MOGN for Salagen unless they asses the value of both MGI-114 and Blitzer's abilities to manage that asset. Like it or not, MGI-114 is part of the package and Blitzer is going to manage it. I've looked at both carefully and I like what I see. I don't look at MGI-114 as a cure for cancer, I look at it as an asset. An investor should look at the MGI-114/Blitzer package, decide if it is a plus or minus, and then factor that into the equation. At this point, Salagen has company in the MOGN equation.
<<MGI 114 is a lottery ticket.>>
It's a long shot but it is not a lottery ticket. Lottery tickets cost money. MGI-114 is free at the present price per share of MOGN. With lottery tickets, chances are you are going to loose your entire "investment." At the present price of MOGN, you get the upside potential of a lottery ticket, though at considerably better odds, without the downside risks. Do I expect MGI-114 to be approved? Of course not. I know the odds. However, in the right hands, MGI-114 remains one incredible asset. If managed properly, MGI Pharma can remain in the position to win if MGI-114 does, at no cost to the investor.
<<Cancer is one tough disease.>>
It is. I know this very well, trust me. Please don't misunderstand anything that I may have said on this thread to think I take the disease lightly.
<<My hope is that the company enters into a collaberation which eliminates the burn and keeps some significant upside.>>
If you mean the European deal, Blitzer has said that this will happen. He knows more about MGI-114, the progress in the trials, negotiating and the state of the negotiations than me or (likely) anyone who posts on this thread. I think everyone would be well served to do their own research and look into Blitzer's background and make their own assessment regarding his integrity, his leadership, his knowledge of the industry and his ability to make deals.
<<If this [collaboration] happens and Salagen sales grow we will have a double digit stock before the end of the year.>>
I would agree. However, I actually expect to see a double digit stock figure when the deal happens. Risk will be greatly diminished and the MGI Pharma story much more easily understood.
Let me say one more thing regarding MGI-114 and how it factors into the MGI Pharma story. In December Blitzer said that MGI Pharma is a niche drug company and would never go out looking for another MGI-114. MGI-114's are too difficult to find and too expensive to develop. MGI-114 was found and developed under former leadership. MGI Pharma's strategy will be to acquire already developed niche drugs that are either at or near the point of generating revenue. [Needless to say, if MGI-114 hits big, MGI Pharma will likely rewrite their business plan.]
Blitzer sees something of incredible value in MGI-114 and is using his experience and ability to maximize that value to MGI Pharma and its shareholders. Some investors may think he should sell the drug outright and stick to Salagen and the niche strategy. However, all investors need to accept the fact that Blitzer is keeping MGI-114 and moving forward. Investors should asses whether or not they like that strategy and invest accordingly.
David |
