Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host

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To: mister topes who wrote (3557)	2/21/1998 7:51:00 PM
From: Investor2	Read Replies (3) of 42834

I said, "It is my impression that Bob was neutral on the market for a while in late 1997. Then, in early 1998, he quickly became very positive in his outlook and issued the buy signal. His model must have one or more indicators that improved quite quickly." When I read my previous statement, I realize that my wording was misleading. I do realize that Bob has maintained a fully invested bullish position since the Dow was at 2300 in 1990. I did not really mean that he wasn't bullish in late 1997. His position in late 1997 (as it is now) was to dollar cost average new money into the equity market. Then, in January 1998, he forecasted the recent buying opportunity. Indeed, he was very excited about the buying opportunity, since he correctly forecasted the subsequent huge rally to new highs. Bob went from a dollar cost average recommendation to an excited, outright buy recommendation. I assume that this change in his recommendation was in response to a change in his model output. If his model output changed, his model input values must have changed (unless he changed the model itself). So, what model input values may have changed? Did market sentiment drastically become more bearish in January? (I don't remember for sure, but I think sentiment was just as negative during late 1997.) Did his earnings projection change? (I don't think so. I believe he has been forecasting about $49 for the S&P 500 for the last few months.) Did the interest rate outlook change? (I believe Bob's forecast was for steady to falling rates both before and after he changed his recommendation from dollar cost average to outright buy.) My question remains: What are the model indicators that improved? Best wishes, I2

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