C2, I'm happy to provide understanding about Made in China demographics of which I'm an international expert. Decades ago, it was obvious to me that they had blundered bigly with the 1 child policy. 2 decades ago I was pointing out to TJ the 20% surplus of young men, which he denied. Now, belatedly, China has gone into reverse on 1 child and says multiple is fine. But oops a daisy, as in Japan and many countries, young women and young men are finding their lives not conducive to breeding swarms.
Even with the population busts underway all over the world, I don't see a problem. Sure, old geezers won't get $millions of medical treatment and free luxury old age care. But people who haven't provided for themselves can still be given clean and comfortable accommodation such as the single men's hut I lived in 54 years ago.
My personal GDP per capita fell dramatically when I quit working and quit buying as I already had everything, more or less. It doesn't matter if GDP falls if people can afford what they want. Economists think falling GDP is bad. They think rising unemployment is bad too. But they aren't necessarily bad if they just reflect the fact that people don't want to produce as much as they did, and they don't want to work for the money that's on offer and would rather rest on their laurels and savings.
People might decide to start having lots of children. All it takes is a man and woman to agree that they would like to be breeders. It's easy. It's fun. It's cheap. Of course one can't be spending time and money on entertainment, travel, hotels, nice cars, etc. But happiness doesn't come from retail therapy and big spending. Children could easily come back into fashion. People in China could decide that's what they'd like to do. If there are lots of empty houses, the price will go down.
If China got down to 500 million people and Japan to 50 million they'd both be just fine. Especially with the technological revolution continuing to make life a breeze. Robots and machinery do most of the work. A few combine harvesters can feed millions of people. Car factories full of robots make beautiful cars cheaply. AI is doing the thinking for no charge. Life's a doddle.
Mqurice |
