ORGN: I was going to send this to Erick, a fellow investor, but figured I should probably share it here as well.
We could easily have a 10X on ORGN in 2025. I'm guessing Wall St. will slap a $1-2B market cap on this thing when the $100M customer is revealed this year: it looks to be one of the big boys. Headline: "World's First All-PET Bottle Cap." It should also rekindle interest in the much bigger, $1 trillion TAM platform technology (CMF/HTC) which has been left for dead.* For starters, here's the math:
The company has ordered eight CapFormer lines of proprietary design to fill the initial $100M order, with some additional capacity leftover. The final shipment on the first line was just delivered from Europe today to Reed City, just miles from Erick's hometown. Considering that (as per Origin PR) these eight lines can produce 8-12B caps per year, 5 billion caps per year is surely the low-end to fill the $100M two-year MOU at $.01 per cap, most likely the low-end price. At 10B caps/year, that would leave 50% capacity on the lines, or 75% at $.02 per cap, and the wording in the last earnings call does not suggest they expect that much extra capacity. Again, low-end estimate.
I plugged this into Chatgpt which narrowed potential customers down to just three, excluding China and India. The third and final question is really the only one you need to read. It literally took Chatgpt five minutes to type out the answer lol. Never seen that before. That's some deep research, I guess. Surprised my phone did not smoke.
chatgpt.com
This is a GREAT starting point for anyone interested, a BoA interview from about six months ago:
zoom.us
* We may actually get a big surprise on that soon, a "Boston connection" (possibly Cabot and carbon black), according to a veritable insider-- nothing illegal, just tea leaves-- who started a Discord I joined recently where his buddy, CEO J. Bissell, occasionally pops in and answers questions. Bissell insists that furans are not dead. |
