Rainier & all. There may be a short lasting, excellent buying opportunity with TRIBY, with a very good Upside/downside risk/reward profile. They manufacture a growing number of diagnostic lab tests focused on the point of care market, with some OTC. The number of tests now exceed 90, distributed in the US & internationally. In the past year they have acquired two companies that not only gave them more tests, but the distribution channels for those businesses. One of the acquisitions had the additional benefit of carrying an ISO 9002 test kit production facility with it. Revenues and EPS in increasing significantly, and they have a projected 114% EPS growth rate next year. TRIBY submitted their HIV test based on their propriatary UniGold test kit platform to the FDA last year, and requested the highest's level of review. The effect is that if the test is approved (it's already being sold overseas), it will also serve as a validation of the test platform, which will streamline future FDA submissions based on the UniGold platform
Fundimental Analysis.
The last negative qtr was only negative due to a foreign currency loss (TRIBY is an Irish ASR traded on the NASDAQ small cap - Ireland is currently a very favorable business climate) The 4th qtr is about to be released, at which point TRIBY will have it's first profitable year (.01, .01, .02 & (projected .03). Next year is projected at .15 (DLJ has a strong buy on it). Those .01 qtrs will provide a great press release opportunity - great year over year comparisons. Current ration is already very strong, and once the last negative qtr is replaced with (projected) .03, the balance sheet rations will improve
tremendously. FA link follows.
dailystocks.net
The assets is also most probably significantly understated. TRIBY owns 800,000 (unless my memory is flawed) shares of SLF (currently trading at about $10.00) That they reflect on their books at 1.00.
The conservative valuation is due to the fact that the shares are in dispute. A case is being heard to resolve this currently, with an expected settlement of 75-80%
A couple additional links from: The 56 Point TA; Charts With an Attitude thread with further analysis of TRIBY
techstocks.com
(Then click on next for a second page)
I personally disagree somewhat with the significance of the Doctor/lab ownership relevence mentioned in the second page. This may be an issue in the US, but not much of one internationally. Smith Kline B. is distributing their one step rapid HIV test in Africa & Asia, where inexpensive, reliable point of care tessts are a huge advantage, and there is often very limited access to a diagnostic lab.
Technical Analysis.
The stock is somewhat similar to the current situation with PERLF in that is is basing following a downtrend, and now generating a slowly rising series of higher lows. The situation last Sept - Nov was somewhat unusual - a class of warrents was expiring, that if converted, allowed purchase of not only a share, but also a future share at a set price (don't remember the terms now but it's not really relevant) But the bottom line is that TRIBY trading was adversely effected by an arbitrage situation that has since been settled (the warrents expired)
Risk/reward.
Short interest has plummeted to near 0 (7,906 shares) A stable base has been established, the company has had time to digest the acquisitions & now they're adding to the bottom line. Broad product base & multiple distribution channels reduces the potential impact of loosing a large customer, or key product obsolescence substantially.
Positive & quickly growing cash flow, margins improving, expanding product line. 52 week range 1 1/2 - 3 3/16, high in last two years was above above 6 during the gonza speculative/small cap market of Spring 96.
Anyway, thought this would interest some of ya'll, Scott
Disclosure - I'm long on this stock, but at 1,300 shares, it's not a position that I'd spend a lot of time hyping in order to enhance short term.
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