Exactly. In 1993 my boss, with whom I had a friendly business relationship, asked me what I knew about AMAT, because she confided she was offered a job with them. I told her the company was well-regarded and dominant with its machines in the semiconductor business. Often since, I've had recriminations that I didn't myself buy shares after our discussion or even any time since. Even again, after it was mentioned by bruwin here years later, and I came to the same conclusion I held-- business is intact probably, but stock too expensive.
Can't remember my reason for not buying in 1993. I believe at the time the semiconductor business was properly viewed as very cyclical. P/e 10x was considered about normal (?); maybe AMAT was higher-rated, maybe p/e 12-15x for its prowess and a positive that it wasn't tied to just one chip maker.
Considering my AMAT error (failing to step up, failure to look out to its sustainable presence/dominance, failure to buy/hold even a little at any time because of my persistent presumption of its elevated stock price and/or p/e) has influenced and helped me alter my view of stocks, and allowed me to buy/hold some other stocks subsequently which seemed to be like this AMAT. GOOG being one, for example. |
