Here is an interesting post by a fellow, Sergem, in the Motley Fool boards . . . [he] is predicting 25 in 1998 for CIEN and backs it up with some interesting analysis . . . Any comments?
Helios,
I have a comment. I don't know where CIEN's stock price ends in 1998, but I do know that Sergem's post is just plain wrong on two issues: (1) new customers and (2) kind of product that it is shipping. At to the new customer issue, Sergem states:
Well it becomes pretty clear that CIEN has not won ANY new customers apart of its two early wins at Sprint and Worldcom.
This is false. The CIEN 10Q states:
During the first quarter of 1998, the Company also recognized initial product acceptance and revenue recognition from:
o MultiWave Sentry systems supplied to Mercury Communications Limited, a U.K. based subsidiary of Cable and Wireless Communications Group ("Cable and Wireless") . . .
o Teleway Japan Corporation ("Teleway") . . .
o Japan Telecom Co., Ltd ("Japan Telecom") networks in Japan.
Sergem also states that CIEN only has a 16-channel product. However, the 10Q advises that some revenue in the near term will be from its 40-channel and 24-channel products:
The Company expects revenues, in the near term to be largely dependent upon sales to Sprint, several new customers and depending on the results of ongoing testing and evaluation, AT&T Corporation ("AT&T") and to be largely derived from sales of the MultiWave Sentry and new product sales of the MultiWave 4000, the Company's 40 channel version of the MultiWave Sentry, and the MultiWave Firefly(TM), the Company's short distance 24 channel product.
Gary Korn |
