>>John, I buy your answers, but how can I convince the unbelievers to believe "Wall Street made up stories to push thru the media" while they barely believe Wall Street play games on prices in the first place.<<
Ben, I admire you for starting this thread and trying to open the eyes of small time traders. I've had similar conversations with people and few care to listen. I know it can be frustrating. I think it shows several things, the effectiveness of the media blackout surrounding dealer activities and the overall conditioning of the public attitude towards investing. Its also human nature to think we and only we are right. People who ignore the market making function, particularly if they trade actively, do so at their own peril. Most I'm sure havn't been burnt enough times to question their current beliefs. At least not yet. Their time will come and hopefully then they'll open their eyes. I read your comments on the AOL thread and though I know you meant well you probably could do some time at charm school! Anyway, I'm sure SI will come up with a Grammar checker for you soon!
>>Anyhow, seems like the divergence of Dow and Nasdaq is showing a weakness, and telling me that the specialists are pulling the plugs to go lower. Almost all the small-cap/mid-cap stocks that I follow or own are down today, looks like a drop back to high 7000 is inescapable.
FWIW, I think you're a little early here. After a sharp run-up, selling is the "easy" trade. Not having seen the advance coming, most people will then try to pick the top. Most will fail. There is a lot of big news coming out this week - G7, Greenspan, Pecker-gate, and the Iraq situation. Big news which could really move the market. Admittedly, news which could potentially knock the DOW down several hundred points. I believe that's how most small time investors are thinking. And probably loading up on puts. The market has staged a phenomenal rally in the past few weeks - completely ignoring Asia, Klinton, and Iraq. That is unbridaled strength. My guess is we will see DOW 9000 very soon. Then, we may be looking at a significant top. The market is telling us that the Irag situation will be resolved without conflict, and that the First Penis will be pardoned or at least restrained. Have you thought of the market reaction to a peaceful resolution in Iraq? How about a 200-300 point rally? Very possible. I think one last hurrah is necessary to blow the shorts out of the water and to sting them so bad they won't think about shorting again for quite some time. Then and only then the market will be cleared for a decline. I am expecting speculation to be brought to a climax to coincide with a probable market top above 9K. How will they feed the frenzy? By launching the Internet sector into orbit. AOL has already started its move and by no means is it finished yet. Who is soon to join in? AMZN,YHOO,ONSL,SEEK to name a few. Though you need to call them as you see them, thats my strategy now. On a side note, to prove your point above, last thursday, a rumor was circulated that the CEO of ONSL was resigning. A completely bogus rumor which alibied a sharp drop in ONSL stock enabling dealers to break support and open the floodgates to cheap stock. Pure accumulation from panicked traders. Naturally, just as OJ is committed to finding the "real" killer, the media is committed to finding the "source" of the rumor. Give me a break. Boy can they shovel the S***. Anyway, just my $.02.Good luck with your trading. |
