SSA (SSAX) BPCS/Client Server Message Board

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Technology Stocks : SSA (SSAX) BPCS/Client Server

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To: kvogel who wrote (627)	2/22/1998 12:00:00 PM
From: kvogel	Read Replies (2) of 915

TO ALL: Opinion on where we are. Seeking other opinions and additions. Well, this is the week we have all been waiting for. The stock will most likely move several points in either direction after Tues. I believe the upside probability is greater than the downside although I'm anxious to say the least. Positive factors are: 1) New management brought in to run the company, especially sales, marketing, day-to-day business. I don't think Stuek would have taken this job if he couldn't see a way to succeed. He had it made at IBM. Management changes generally lead to higher stock prices even with companies with big problems - IFMX, SGI, and even AT&T. 2) Foresight into what problems have to be solved for company to increase market share. 3) Good product pretty well developed and tested in the marketplace - BPCS 6.0. 4) Finances in best shape in several years including money available to implement new business strategy. 5) Overhanging block of stock from CA sold on the upside to a fund that follows SSAX closely. They probably wouldn't have added to their position without some assurances from H&Q and SSAX management. 6) H&Q has big interest in SSAX. If they thought SSAX couldn't solve their problems H&Q as financial advisors could probably set up a takeover at $15- 20/sh. H&Q is most likely actively helping in restructuring the company. Negative factors: 1) Tarnished reputation mentioned by Stuek. 2) Difficulty in getting personnel to implement new business plan. 3) Possible charges against quarter's earnings from restructuring. Stuek most likely wants any negative factors put in Q1 since he won't be blamed for Q1. 4) Loss of confidence by analysts. Many people were involved in the sale of the convertible bonds and they made optimistic projections for SSAX. H&Q has overcome their problem by getting in bed with SSAX management and receiving some very valuable compensation. LF (Lazard Freres) on the other hand is probably really still pissed. They had an estimate of SSAX going to 20 with a buy recommendation. They also placed alot of the bonds which aren't convertible til the stock gets to 18 or so. This is a strong negative in this kind of market where the herd mentality follows analysts recommendations, especially momentum players who ultimately run stocks to "highs". Technically the stock is at a point for breakout one way or the other. I believe the downside might be limited to 6 1/2 seen earlier in Jan. Upside could be to 9 1/2 - 10 on initial news before resistance. Would welcome your comments on other positive or negative factors as you see them. Karl

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