If I might add a Jakarta comms perspective ...
Callback and other such schemes do not affect Telkom, they affect PT Indosat and PT Satelindo, who hold the international call duopoly here. Telkom receives interconnect revenue from international calls only, and this revenue would still be earned in the event of an incoming (ie. callback) call.
Telkom's real ability to rape and pillage (and, believe me, we have to deal with them on a daily basis) lies in the onerous conditions they have imposed upon their KSOs, or regional carriers. With the KSOs bearing all of the risk of the Government's line rollout policies, Telkom just sits back and rakes in the revenues.
At the moment, however, Telkom is in a dreadful position: Its call revenues are fixed by the Indonesian government, and its asset acquisition program is denominated in US Dollars. Indeed, the government just decreased the SLJJ rates between Indonesian provinces, thus further eroding Telkom's "real" earnings.
Since you are looking at (or holding) Telkom shares in USD not IDR, I would suggest great caution in the short-term. While the stock is an excellent long-term bargain, in the next few weeks it may become cheaper still.
Incidentally, you are wise to stay away from other Indonesian assets for the time being. The trouble here will just get worse, and those same assets will still be on sale - at lower prices - in the months to come. |
