Based on my observation from Apple stock past and future trends, I
summarize as follows:
- Past:
Apple has been in wide swings past year. It went up to $29.75 in
August, '97 and down to $12.75 in the end of last year. Following
is an interesting statistics data:
Date Close Price Volume
8/11/97 $24.563 13,848,200
8/12/97 $26.813 16,414,100
8/13/97 $29.188 33,101,400
8/14/97 $26.9313 37,430,000
The total volume in above four trading days are 100,793,700 shares,
about 78% of total outstanding volume. I wonder how many percentages
of the above who bought still hold in the long position. Let's say
60% of them which equivalent to about 46.8% of total volume is still
held as long. Besides that percentage, volume bought before '96
with prices higher than current level and still hold long is half of
the above, 50,397,350 shares in conservative estimate. Then, the
total amount of volume with higher prices is about 79%-80% of total
outstanding shares. It is clear that there is only about 20% of
outstanding (about 27 million shares available) on the daily trading
excluding volume derived from short positions. If daily average of
trading volume is about 2.9 million shares, then theoretically,
there is a cycle in about two weeks (which means all 27 millions
changed hands). From the recent daily price range and volume, there
are a significant number of trades done by daily or short-term
traders who may buy shares from shorts as "virtual" shares. The
conclusion is that there are about 21% of volume is regularly
traded the rest is sitting there as investment, and near 8.6%
shorts, of which about 15-25% are changed in regualr pattern.
- Near future:
The price has broken the resistance level of $19.75 three days
consecutively and remains in 20's. There is a strong buying force
(always placing $19.9375 with bidding size of 19k), while on the
opposite side, there is constantly 10k at $20 with size of 10k.
It may be due to the option expiration last Friday, thus the price
is forced to near $20 striking price. It is amazing to see a
mysterious bidding force with size of 10-19k in recent weeks.
I am not certain if the phenomenon will continue.
- Mid to long-term future:
It seems the price will be driven higher based on the consensus
estimate on EPS plus several factors, such as announcing CEO,
alliance with other companies, overall technical market trend, Power
shares disturbing force has gone, steadily revenue/net rises in the
coming quarters, new powerful products on market, etc.
Phil
|
