peacelover, I found this article on cramer at TSC buying CPQ last week and I had to follow you over here from the asnd thread to post it. Looks like your with good company.
"Wrong! for Thursday
Cramer's Rash Rush to Enthus-
iasm
By James J. Cramer
TheStreet.com
N E W ÿ Y O R K, ÿ Feb. 19 - Did you ever wonder why some kids play wide receiver and others line up at right tackle? How about because that's what they are best at? I got to thinking about job descriptions when I noticed Wednesday that I was now down on every position I had bought from the Goldman Sachs Tech conference the week before.
ÿÿÿÿ If you recall, I was in midtown giving speeches, hawking TheStreet.com, and dropped by a couple of meetings, killer cell phone in hand. One of them was with Earl Mason, CFO of Compaq. Jeff Berkowitz, my partner who usually goes to these meetings, expressed trepidation when I said I was attending Mason's lovefest. He was convinced I could not resist the siren songs Mason would put out about Compaq. He had heard them dozens of times.
ÿÿÿÿSure enough, I could not contain myself. I got mesmerized by all of the little ComFacts Mason talked about-you know, how the company makes $90,000 a minute, etc. Next thing you know, I jammed it on the sheets, claiming that I had heard new information about how strong Europe was. I had been smitten. Jeff didn't have the will to fight me. He didn't grill me on inventory concerns or DEC integration problems. He's the wide receiver that found himself blocking my ferocious pass rush. I still think the Compaq trade will work, particularly after Dell's strong numbers. But in the vernacular of those I am quick to denigrate, "I was early."
ÿÿÿÿWhat happened? Pretty simple. I was playing Jeff's game, and not too well, either. Normally, Jeff goes to these meetings and gives me input. I then match the macro environment-are we in a consumer non-durable rotation, a tech sell-off, etc.-against supply and demand considerations from the floor. (Newbies: if there are many sellers of a stock, that is not a good sign. You can check with your broker who can get you a New York Stock Exchange floor picture. That shows how much stock there is to buy and sell at certain prices. People change minds, news occurs, orders get cancelled, but checking out the floor is a decent way to start a trade. Who can get a floor picture? When I was a broker at Goldman Sachs I got them all of the time for my trading clients. That did not mean that for 100 share orders I would knock myself out to find out if Merrill had a lot of Compaq to sell. Nor was it something that I felt was relevant most of the time. But if someone wanted a floor look, I always obliged.) At Cramer, Berkowitz I try to put all of the pieces together to see if it is a good trade or a pass.
ÿÿÿÿI guess you could say that on this Compaq trade Gilbert Brown (huge, oafish Packer defensive lineman) lined up at wide receiver and Desmond Howard (lithe former Heisman winner) blocked the pass rush. Should I have known that Mason would be upbeat beyond what may have been appropriate? Should I have seen through his enthusiasm and realized that he was just adept at giving the Compaq pitch? That's why I work with Jeff. I need someone to check my enthusiasm, to tell me that everything I have heard has been heard before and there is nothing actionable.
ÿÿÿÿWhy am I telling you all of this? Because I feel guilty. A reader had written last week that I was as caught up with the enthusiasm of the moment at Goldman as I was when I was in Williamsburg with Mark Haines for CNBC. (We printed the letter.) On that occasion I raved about a couple of CEOs, all of whom, in retrospect, would have buried you alive if you had listened to them. When I read the letter fingering me for over-enthusiasm I wanted the reader to be proven wrong, immediately. Instead, I was proven wrong. The simple truth is that had I waited, or not gone to the meeting at all, I would be better off.
ÿÿÿÿThat said, I don't regret that I told the site the truth about what I saw. I do regret that I can't cut through the promotion as well as Jeff. But that's why not everybody plays wide receiver.
ÿÿÿÿWhich brings me to the matter at hand. Jeff checks my enthusiasm at the office, as my wife did before him. One of the reasons why I am so excited that Herb Greenberg is coming to work with us in two weeks is that Herb will no doubt check my enthusiasm on the site. I can just read what he would say about my Mason ravings: "duh, what did you think, he would tell a downbeat story?"
ÿÿÿÿWe will all benefit from that skepticism in the same way that Cramer, Berkowitz benefits from Jeff's critical approach to my excitement. It will also make the site more exciting and enjoyable.
ÿÿÿÿI make no apologies about being enthusiastic about business; indeed it is what has kept me in the game picking good stocks year after year. But there is nothing wrong with someone to knock heads with when the siren songs start up. Either at the office, or at the site.
ÿÿÿÿI just wish Herb had started last week. Could have saved me some money. Maybe you, too. "
Fuz
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