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Technology Stocks : Ciena (CIEN)
CIEN 214.35+0.7%Dec 9 4:00 PM EST
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To: Gary Korn who wrote (1415)2/22/1998 6:24:00 PM
From: craig crawford  Read Replies (3) of 12623
 
<< I have a comment. I don't know where CIEN's stock price ends in 1998, but I do know that Sergem's post is just plain wrong on two issues >>

I don't know if I am confident enough about my knowledge of WDM to say that Sergem is wrong, but I do think he has possibly overlooked a few important points.

OC-192 electronics are much more complicated and expensive than OC-48 ones. They might even be more prone to problems. Even if 16 channel OC-192 WDM is available (160Gb/s), in many cases carriers will choose to use OC-48 at say, 40 channels (100Gb/s) because it is simpler and/or less expensive. There are many ways to skin a cat and OC-192 is not always the easiest or best solution. I think QWST is running OC-192 because they are laying new fiber which is well-suited to handle OC-192 speeds. I also think that OC-192 has been used more extensively for long trans-ocean runs undersea.

Furthermore AT&T has some of the oldest fiber in service. From what I have read some of their fiber might not even be in good enough condition to even run at OC-192 speeds. Therefore solutions running at OC-48 would be the only effective solution. I don't know how much of the installed fiber is not suitable to run at OC-192 but I would bet it's enough to make a difference.

Perhaps our resident expert Mr. Bagwell would have some insight on the subject.
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