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Eric

To: Eric who wrote (1519874)	2/6/2025 5:25:12 PM
From: Tenchusatsu	1 Recommendation Read Replies (2) of 1576159

More tidbits about RuZZia's collapsing economy from a WSJ op-ed: China Watches as Russia’s Economy Teeters (WSJ) Key takeaways: - RuZZia's sovereign wealth fund has declined from $300M at the start of PooTin's three-day war of choice to about $100M today. (This isn't counting the other $300M that was frozen at the start of the war.) The op-ed estimates that RuZZia will fully deplete their wealth fund by this year, but what's more likely to happen is that RuZZia will start printing money while at the same time slowing their fund withdrawal rates. - Inflation is nominally 10%, but most economists think it's higher. Given that interest rates there are currently at 21%, that suggests inflation is actually somewhere in the high teens. And given that PooTin instructed Elvira to stop further interest rate increases (because the rate hikes clearly aren't working), it's likely that inflation will only accelerate this year. - Banks are pressured to give lots of loans to RuZZia's military industrial complex at below market rates. I covered this before. This will lead to a credit crisis that can collapse the RuZZian economy. - RuZZia is having problems selling ruble bonds to creditors. That shouldn't be a surprise, but it does underscore PooTin's inability to fund his war of choice on credit cards. - Oil revenues are not making up for RuZZia's financial problems. Coupled with the fact that oil is hovering around the low $70s, and it's not clear that RuZZia is making all that much money, even with their shadow fleet of rickety oil tankers trying to get around the $60 price cap. - One thing PooTin is doing almost masterfully is spreading the pain around. By combining multiple tools for prolonging the war, PooTin is making sure that no single point of pain causes Mutha RuZZia to double over. But that's like a desperate gambler signing up for credit card after credit card hoping that the next big bet will pay off in spades. - Unfortunately, PooTin still thinks he's winning the war, and that all of the pain he's spreading around is manageable. Meanwhile, Ukraine believes they can win the war just by grinding it out and waiting for the RuZZian economy to collapse. No matter who you believe, the fact that both sides still think they can win will make it hard for Trump to get anyone to the negotiating table. Tenchusatsu

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