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Gold/Mining/Energy : American International Petroleum Corp

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To: qdog who wrote (7510)	2/22/1998 9:40:00 PM
From: Alan	Read Replies (2) of 11888

Qdog - what do u think? TIA - Alan. Post From Yahoo follows --------------------------- AIPN has given us enough information to do some back-of-the-envelope estimates for Chikuduk OOIP and recoverable reserves. Crank this plus a little experience thru a risk analysis program and we get: Original Oil in Place (OOIP) There is a 90% chance there is more than 1.959 billion barrels There is a 50% chance there is more than 4.098 billion barrels There is a 10% chance there is more than 9.422 billion barrels Recoverable Reserves There is a 90% chance that they can recover more than 725 million barrels There is a 50% chance that they can recover more than 1.593 billion barrels There is a 10% chance that they can recover more than 3.933 billion barrels The above is for oil only; gas and condensate would be bonuses. Some companies equate the 90%-50%-10% recoverable reserves numbers to Proved-Probable-Possible for the purpose of evaluating a project's value (how the SEC handles it is very different). They might pay $1.00/barrel for oil in the ground in this region, so would view the Chikuduk structure as being worth between $725 million and $1.593 billion (likely closer to the $725 million). This is not to say they will pay that price, because there is still significant geologic risk for the undrilled portion of the structure. There are also costs to doing business in Kaz and other problems (like pipeline access). The value of our little company would be greatly enhanced if they drilled a successful well at the other end of the structure. I have satisfied myself that some big numbers are possible here - I'm probably about 10% on the conservative side. Wavetech surely has more info to work with and can do better estimates, but I would be quite skeptical if GF announces "numbers" for Chikuduk that are wildly different than these. Maybe one of you financial-type people can figure out how much/share the $725 million would be. With all the usual disclaimers, Regards, Fireant

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