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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: Ibexx who wrote (14290)2/22/1998 9:44:00 PM
From: William H Huebl  Read Replies (4) of 94695
 
Ibex,

I find whenever I am planning on going into the markets that I need forecasts for all 3 ranges... short, mid and long term (long to me is 6 months). There was some interest on this thread in that sort of thing so I have been posting my forecasts ever since. But if you note the results, my gut feeling is as good as she gets thus far... even though I rely heavily on TA and these annecdotal indicators.

For example, I plan on buying puts tomorrow on some weak stocks which should be carried down by the markets this week. It may not be a great sell-off but weak stocks frequently take bigger hits than strong ones... NOT ALWAYS.

As BB knows, I am getting ever close to that "holy grail" indicator... but a perfect one, I suspect, can never exist!

As far as whether I believe these forecasts... the longer out they are, I find, the better they are up to several weeks to a month or so. So 1-2 days is really a guessing game, a week can be forecast on a better than average basis and a month better than that.

I find the morning opening is fairly forecastable... but then you have the overnight and overseas indices going for you.

And it was YOU that asked for specifics... no generalities... I really think if I gave the forecast YOU posted, you would have jumped me royally!

Bill
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