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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host
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To: Tim Bagwell who wrote (3588)2/22/1998 9:58:00 PM
From: Gary D  Read Replies (1) of 42834
 
>>I also believe there was no significant change in sentiment, valuation or economic indicators to warrant Bob's jubilation in early January 1998. That leaves either a big change in the monetary indicators or that it was the cumulative effect of small moves in several indicators.<<

Tim, I think your comment is based on the assumption that if the model turns more bullish at a particular time, then one or more of the indicators input to the model must also have turned more bullish at about the same time. I doubt the model is that simple. An important variable probably is the recent historical variation of each of the indicators that serve as input to the model. For example, perhaps the value of, say, the monetary indicator between nine and six months ago is a factor influencing the degree of bullishness today.

Gary
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