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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host
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To: Gary D who wrote (3592)2/22/1998 11:24:00 PM
From: Tim Bagwell  Read Replies (2) of 42834
 
An important variable probably is the recent historical variation of each of the indicators that serve as input to the model.

Gary,

Thanks for the comment. You are right that I may be oversimplifying the model that Bob uses and indeed he may use some elements of memory or storage in his model such as 6 month moving average, etc.

But I think there is a tendency to view this kind of thing as very mysterious when the best models are usually based upon simple and straightforward concepts. They might look complex because of the computation involved but the basic ideas are simple.

What I'm hoping is that it is possible to zero in on which component of the model that was responsible for the sharp upward prediction and from that one might surmise how that component is determined.
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