Dave, I agree wholeheartedly with what you were saying re earnings not being the whole key, certainly not for trading: Waiting until the technical analysis turned positive allows me to get more bang for the buck if I do it correctly.
Exactly, particularly if one is buying options like I am. Anybody can see that call buyers have been big money losers for the most part so far. However, what I was saying is that "the bet" still hinges on earnings being there. "IF" it is revealed that the direction of the fundamentals are not what they appear to be to bulls, then this sector is as dead as flattened road-kill, no matter what the charts say. That's all I was saying. I and others have had all these same opinions as you are presenting (which I agree with) in other sectors such as the DD sector, been WRONG, and got KILLED.
Regarding my comment of "I'm looking for a minimum of 60% retracement in most stocks such as CDG, for example":
I'm referring to a 60% retracement UP. This would put CDG at $65, MDCO at $26, ESV at $40, RIG at $53, etc. These numbers also coincide fairly closely for the most part with the peak prices of early Dec, when there was the first dead-cat bounce. This will be a resistance level that needs to be punched through strongly. I only put targets out there for myself so that there is some kind of goal in mind for the time frame I've picked. This way I can measure the progress of the trade.
DK |
