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<<First, she needs to explain away>> (Valentina Zharkova and new mini Ice Age) OK WR, this one actually took a little research and thought. This is not being "right" or "wrong" it is a voyage of discovery. If I am right, and it looks that way, I am a bit flabbergasted about what is inferred in the big picture. Whatever the answer is, thank you for bringing it to my attention as normally I would not have looked deeper into it and accepted the "experts" opinion. Would have just skipped over it and moved onto the next story.
To get to the nub of the story, I will pick up on the original refutation of the Valentina Zharkova paper in 2019.
You posted an excellent account of it here, from the "New Scientist" a journal I used to subscribe to as a student. It's been running for many years.
Ken Rice of the University of Edinburgh, UK, criticised the paper for an “elementary” mistake about celestial mechanics. “It’s well known that the sun moves around the barycentre of the solar system due to the influence of the other solar system bodies, mainly Jupiter,” he says. “This does not mean, as the paper is claiming, that this then leads to changes in the distance between the sun and the Earth.” “The claim that we will see warming in the coming centuries because the sun will move closer to the Earth as it moves around the solar system barycentre is very simply wrong,” adds Rice. He is urging the journal to withdraw the paper, and says it is embarrassing it was published.
Gavin Schmidt of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies says the paper contains egregious errors. “The sun-Earth distance does not vary with the motion of the sun-Earth system around the barycentre of the sun-Jupiter system, nor the sun-galactic centre system or any other purely mathematical reference point,” he says. He says the journal must retract the paper if it wants to retain any credibility.
Michael Brown of Monash University in Australia lamented uncritical media coverage of the paper in Australia.Following criticism of the paper, lead author Valentina Zharkova, of Northumbria University, described Rice as a “climate alarmist” in an online discussion.“The close links between oscillations of solar baseline magnetic field, solar irradiance and temperature are established in our paper without any involvement of solar inertial motion,” Zharkova told New Scientist.Scientific Reports says it has begun an “established process” to investigate the paper it has published. “This process is ongoing and we cannot comment further at this stage,” a spokesperson said.
Actually this is not a difficult a matter to resolve for the clarity of all. Just a consideration of the three bodied problem will do it.
Most of us know about the establishment of the "Barycentre" of a two bodied rotation. Earth Moon considered here in this utube short.
The big deal here is going to the three bodied problem.
To make thing easier, lets consider on Earth Size planet and two Suns, one Half the size of our own sun. Now consider the orbit of the Earth on The Bigger Sun. Will the distance between the Earth and the Sun Change by perturbation from the smaller half sized Sun? The answer, if you consider it, is a resounding YES !!!
In fact here is a scary one. What if Mercury was replaced by a Solar Mass Black Hole?
So, in general, in our Solar System the Planets will perturb Each other and yes this will change the distance of the Earth to the Sun. The Bigger Planets have a much larger effect.
Now If I can figure all this out, I am sure senior members in Academia can figure it out too.
In conclusion: [The BIG question] What on EARTH were Ken Rice, Gavin Schmidt, et al babbling about? Zharkova is right!
In fact she uses the JPL and PMO websites to get the Sun-Earth distance data,
<<https://www.intechopen.com/chapters/75534, which explored the real ephemeris of the Sun-Earth distances taken from the JPL and PMO ephemeris websites. Indeed, Zharkova, 2021 has clearly shown that contrary to statements of many AGW people (K.Rice, G. Schmidt and others),>>
Here is Valentina Zharakova's completed presentation post the "refutation".
